Ghana’s Economy to Withstand US–Iran Conflict Impact on Back of Strong Gold Prices – Fitch Solutions
Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghana’s economy will remain largely cushioned against the impact of the US–Iran conflict, underpinned by strong gold prices and solid foreign exchange inflows from exports.
In its latest report, the firm explained that while international gold prices have fallen by 14% since tensions escalated in late February 2026 due to higher US Treasury yields, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and a stronger US dollar – the spot price of US$4,413 per ounce as of March 27 remains nearly three times the 2015–2024 average of US$1,603 per ounce.
The firm’s Commodities team continues to forecast an average gold price of US$4,600 per ounce in 2026, which would mark the highest annual average on record and represent a 33.7% increase compared to the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.
“We expect Ghana’s economy to remain relatively shielded from the effects of the US–Iran conflict, given the gains from elevated gold prices. Strong export-related foreign exchange inflows and the country’s broadly balanced net oil trade position will help reduce pressure on the external sector and the cedi, while earlier fiscal consolidation measures and the implementation of a new gold royalty regime will help keep fiscal pressures in check,” Fitch Solutions said.
As Africa’s top gold exporter, Ghana is positioned to attract sizeable US dollar inflows in the coming months, supported by an anticipated 7.1% rise in gold production, particularly from the Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini mines.
Fitch also projects that gold export revenues will grow by 12.9% to US$23.7 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, well above the average of 0.9% recorded between 2010 and 2024.
At the same time, Ghana’s hydrocarbons trade balance is expected to remain broadly even, indicating that recent increases in global energy prices are unlikely to significantly affect the country’s current account position.
