Ghana to Account for 20% of $80 Billion West African Oil Market Value by 2033
Ghana is projected to account for 20 percent of West Africa’s estimated $80 billion oil market value by 2033, according to Deloitte’s latest report on the West African Oil Market. This projection translates to a contribution of approximately $16 billion from Ghana to the region’s total market value over the next eight years.
Nigeria, the region’s largest oil producer, is expected to dominate with 60 percent of the total estimated market value, while the remaining 20 percent will be shared among other oil-producing countries, including Angola, and Côte d’Ivoire.
According to the report, the West African oil and gas market is demonstrating strong growth potential, buoyed by rising global energy demand and the region’s abundant reserves. The report further notes that the market is expected to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% over the period 2025 to 2033, reflecting sustained investment and exploration activities.
In terms of crude production, Nigeria remains the continent’s top oil producer, averaging 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of 2024, followed closely by Angola, which produced around 1.1 million bpd. Deloitte attributes the positive outlook for Ghana and other regional players to ongoing exploration projects, favourable fiscal policies, and increasing investor confidence in the region.
PIAC Report Shows Dip in Oil Production
Despite the growth projection in Ghana’s oil production to account for a significant portion of the West African region’s oil market, a recent report by the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) indicates that Ghana’s oil production for the first half of 2025 declined by 25.9%.
The Committee’s 2025 Semi-Annual Report on the management and use of petroleum revenues revealed that total output from the country’s three producing offshore fields — Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) — amounted to 18.42 million barrels (bbls), compared to 24.86 million barrels produced during the same period in 2024, attributing the decline mainly to operational shutdowns, natural reservoir decline, and maintenance activities across all three producing fields.
The Jubilee Field remained the largest contributor despite recording the steepest drop in production. Output fell 32.8 percent to 11.02 million barrels in H1 2025, from 16.41 million barrels in the corresponding period last year. Average daily production declined from 90,755 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to 60,898 bbl/d in 2025. PIAC explained that the decline was influenced by a planned shutdown between 26–31 March and continued works from 1–8 April, which constrained operations. The field’s highest monthly output was recorded in January (2.40 million barrels), while April (1.27 million barrels) marked the lowest.
Production from the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) Field also dropped by 14.0 percent, with output falling from 3.45 million barrels in H1 2024 to 2.97 million barrels in H1 2025. The field’s average daily output decreased from 19,065 bbl/d to 16,420 bbl/d. PIAC attributed the shortfall to a mini-shutdown for flare tip replacement and ongoing reservoir challenges. The highest monthly production was recorded in March (0.51 million barrels), while the lowest occurred in May (0.45 million barrels).
The Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) Field recorded the least decline among the three fields, with production falling 11.6 percent to 4.42 million barrels in the first half of 2025, from 5.00 million barrels in the same period last year. Average daily production dropped from 27,600 bbl/d in 2024 to 24,463 bbl/d in 2025. PIAC linked the decline to intermittent operational disruptions and reservoir management constraints, though it noted that the challenges were less severe than those affecting Jubilee and TEN.
Upstream Petroleum Expenditure Falls to $643m
The PIAC report further notes that total upstream petroleum expenditure across Ghana’s three producing fields — Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) — amounted to US$643.09 million in the first half of 2025, representing a 3.84 percent decline from the US$668.79 million recorded in the same period in 2024.
According to the report, the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation’s (GNPC) share of the total expenditure stood at US$68.14 million, accounting for 10.6 percent of the total. The Jubilee Field accounted for the largest share of upstream spending, though total expenditure fell by 18.5 percent to US$272.28 million in H1 2025, compared to US$333.96 million in H1 2024. Production costs on the field rose significantly to US$157.38 million, from US$92.13 million a year earlier, reflecting maintenance-related operational costs during the March–April planned shutdown.
The Jubilee Field accounted for the largest share of upstream spending, though total expenditure fell by 18.5 percent to US$272.28 million in H1 2025, compared to US$333.96 million in H1 2024. Production costs on the field rose significantly to US$157.38 million, from US$92.13 million a year earlier, reflecting maintenance-related operational costs during the March–April planned shutdown.
The Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) Field recorded a 21.8 percent increase in total expenditure, reaching US$194.79 million in H1 2025, up from US$159.93 million in H1 2024. Production costs rose to US$116.60 million, compared with US$95.09 million a year earlier, reflecting increased maintenance and reservoir management spending. However, development costs decreased to US$78.19 million, down from US$64.84 million in the previous year, as fewer new capital projects were undertaken.
