Fitch Solutions Projects Ghana’s GDP Growth at 5% in 2026
UK-based research and risk advisory firm, Fitch Solutions, has forecast Ghana’s economy to remain on a firm growth trajectory, projecting real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026—a marginal increase from the revised 4.9% growth estimated for 2025.
The revision of the 2025 growth outlook—from an initial projection of 4.2%—comes on the back of stronger-than-expected macroeconomic performance in the first quarter of the year, coupled with improving economic fundamentals.
Fitch’s upgrade follows the release of data by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) on June 6, 2025, which revealed that Ghana’s real GDP growth surged to 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 3.6% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. The figure exceeded Fitch’s earlier expectation of 3.5%, prompting the upward revision.
“A firmer exchange rate relative to 2023–24 levels will help anchor inflation, which we expect to average 13.9%, thereby sustaining solid consumer spending growth,” Fitch Solutions noted in its latest economic outlook for Ghana.
The firm also anticipates that the Bank of Ghana will begin a cycle of interest rate cuts in September 2025, which should gradually filter through the economy, boosting credit growth and supporting recovery in gross fixed capital formation. Additionally, the expected conclusion of Ghana’s IMF programme in 2026 is likely to result in some fiscal loosening, injecting fresh demand into the economy.
Nonetheless, Fitch cautioned that structural headwinds, particularly declining oil production, will weigh on the country’s export performance and cap potential growth.
“Risks to Ghana’s economic outlook are balanced. On the upside, a further appreciation of the cedi would bring inflation down more quickly than we currently project. This would support stronger private consumption and prompt the BoG to ease monetary policy more rapidly, which would stimulate credit uptake,” the report stated.
However, it warned that a sharp drop in global gold prices—potentially triggered by the resolution of major geopolitical tensions or a reversion to conventional US trade policies—could weaken Ghana’s external position.
“In such a scenario, the central bank would struggle to maintain the cedi at current levels, leading to a renewed sell-off. This would keep inflation elevated, dampen consumer and investor sentiment, and compel the BoG to sustain higher interest rates for longer,” Fitch added.
Ghana’s economic outlook, while buoyed by domestic resilience and favourable macro trends, remains exposed to global commodity dynamics and policy shifts—both of which will play a defining role in the growth story over the next two years.
