LPG price to rise by 4%; petrol price to remain stable as diesel price to decline marginally
Price of petrol in the second pricing window of November per the Institute for Energy Security (IES) is expected to remain stable despite the rise in price of gasoline (petrol) on the international market.
Diesel (gasoil) on the other hand, is expected to witness a slight reduction in price at the pumps in response to the 10.11% fall in the international market price of gasoil.
According to the IES, the reduction in the price of diesel is imminent should BDCs decide not to price in recent forex losses incurred – the 4.01% loss in the value of the cedi to the dollar in the first pricing window of November 2022.
Despite the expected stability and reduction in the price of petrol and diesel respectively, price of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) is expected to increase by 4% to reflect the significant jump in the price of the commodity on the international market.
“The Institute for Energy Security (IES) recognizes the significant jump in the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) on the international market as well as the marginal stability in the local currency and predicts that the price of the commodity on the local market will rise by roughly 4%.
“The price of Gasoline though rose marginally on the international market will not be enough to cause a price change domestically. As a result, the IES foresees some stability in the price of Gasoline domestically.
“In IES’ estimation, Gasoil’s price per litre may see a slight reduction in response to the 10.11% fall in international Gasoil price. The reduction is imminent should the bulk importers decide not to price in the recent forex losses they incurred,” stated the IES in its latest report.
According to the IES, at the close of the first pricing window of November, key finished products on the domestic fuel market saw significant changes at the pumps of all Oil Marketing Company (OMC) monitored by the Institute for Energy Security (IES), in response to Cedi depreciation and increase in international prices.
The price increases over the past two weeks moved the national average price per litre of Gasoline from Gh¢16.94 to Ghc17.62, suggesting an increase of 4.01% over the period.
Gasoil’s national average price per litre witnessed a significant jumped of roughly 23% to move from Gh¢18.76 to Gh¢23.07.
World Oil Market
International Crude oil benchmark Brent saw a 3.17% increase in price over the previous window’s average price of $92.19 per barrel to the present average price of $95.11 per barrel.
The EU’s embargo on Russian crude imports by sea, which begins next month, and on Russian oil products in February 2023, could overstress the market and push oil prices back above $100 per barrel, despite the fact that slowing economies and recession fears have been weighing on oil prices for months.
The Chinese trade data fueled some bearish sentiments within the window. Analysts’ expectations of a 4.3 percent increase in exports were not met in October as they decreased by 0.3 percent year over year. Additionally, the data revealed that imports decreased by 7% versus forecasts of growth of 1%.
Oil and other commodity markets will also be watching China’s Covid policy and its potential easing sometime next year for signs of a forthcoming increase in commodity demand if and when Chinese authorities relax the stringent Covid rules.
World Fuel Market
Global Standard & Poor’s (S&P’s) Platts averages over the past two weeks indicate that the price of LPG jumped by 5.40% to end-date price of $630.06 per metric tonne. Price of Gasoline rose marginally by 0.59%, from its initial price of $963.43 per metric tonne to $969.08 per metric tonne.
The price of Gasoil however declined by a whopping 10.11% from the opening figure of $1,220.82 per metric tonne, to end-date price of $1,097.35 per metric tonne.
