- Economic Recovery on Track, but Energy and Refinancing Risks Persist — Deloitte
Ghana’s economic recovery remains on track, supported by stronger growth, falling inflation and improved debt indicators, but large domestic bond maturities and persistent energy-sector losses could threaten the progress unless reforms accelerate, Deloitte has warned.
In its July 2026 analysis of the government’s Mid-Year Budget Statement, the professional services firm said fiscal consolidation had helped restore macroeconomic stability without suppressing economic growth.
Real gross domestic product expanded by 6.40% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4.90%, while non-oil growth reached 6.30%.
Inflation declined to 5.30% in June from 23.80% at the end of 2024, creating conditions for stronger purchasing power, improved business confidence and lower borrowing costs.
Deloitte said growth had become more broad-based, supported by information and communication technology, mining, trade and manufacturing. Debt-service expenditure also declined to 28.60% of domestic revenue by mid-2026 from 55.70% in 2022.
Ghana’s nominal public debt fell to 45.00% of GDP by mid-2026 from 61.80% at the end of 2024, following external debt restructuring, lower domestic interest rates and efforts to pre-fund future payments through the Sinking Fund.
The 91-day Treasury bill rate had declined to 5.73% by June, reducing government interest expenses.
However, Deloitte identified more than GH¢111.00 billion in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028 as a major refinancing risk.
About GH¢58.00 billion falls due in 2027, followed by GH¢53.00 billion in 2028. Failure to manage those obligations in advance could create liquidity pressures, destabilise domestic markets and undermine the country’s improved debt position.
Deloitte called for targeted bond buybacks, debt swaps, phased refinancing and greater use of concessional borrowing for commercially viable projects.
It also recommended fully capitalising the Sinking Fund to its projected GH¢30.00 billion target by the end of 2026 and issuing longer-term cedi-denominated bonds to reduce reliance on short-term Treasury bills.
Despite declining policy and money-market rates, Deloitte said the benefits had not passed fully to private borrowers because commercial lending spreads remained wide.
It proposed expanding blended-finance and partial credit-guarantee schemes through institutions such as Development Bank Ghana to lower risk premiums for small and medium-sized enterprises and labour-intensive industries.
Ghana’s external sector has also strengthened, with gross international reserves reaching US$12.90 billion in June, equivalent to five months of import cover.
Gold accounted for 68.00% of exports during the first half of 2026, supported by formalised small-scale mining exports, local refining arrangements and the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy.
That concentration, however, leaves the economy vulnerable to commodity-price shocks. Deloitte therefore urged stronger investment in agro-processing, light manufacturing and export-oriented industries to reduce dependence on gold, cocoa and crude oil.
Energy-sector liabilities remain another major threat.
Deloitte said under-recovery of electricity costs, weak revenue collection and accumulated arrears had historically increased government borrowing, placed pressure on the cedi and reduced fiscal space for other development spending.
Without reforms, Ghana’s annual energy-sector financing shortfall could reach about US$2.20 billion, according to the IMF estimate cited in the report.
Deloitte said quarterly audits of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s revenue accounts, enforcement of the Cash Waterfall Mechanism and private-sector participation in electricity distribution would be essential, but warned that successful implementation would also require improved metering, billing and operational efficiency.
The report also outlined tighter tax and regulatory measures.
The Ghana Revenue Authority is expected to integrate the Integrated Tax Administration System with the Integrated Customs Management System by December 2026, enabling stronger data-driven enforcement and compliance monitoring.
The government also intends to align the VAT registration threshold for services with goods at GH¢750,000.00, introduce collection mechanisms for non-resident digital service providers and zero-rate qualifying local gold purchases.
Deloitte’s assessment presents Ghana as an economy that has moved beyond immediate crisis management but has not yet secured durable transformation.
The next phase will depend on maintaining fiscal discipline beyond the IMF-supported programme, managing the approaching debt maturity wall, resolving energy-sector inefficiencies and converting macroeconomic stability into lower financing costs, diversified exports and private-sector growth.
