Cedi to weaken to GHS 15 per $1 by year-end – Joe Jackson predicts
Joe Jackson, Director of Operations at Dalex Finance, has made a forecast that the Cedi will experience a depreciation against the US dollar, reaching GHS 15 to $1 by the close of 2023.
Speaking during the Canada Ghana Chamber of Commerce Business Webinar on Thursday, June 29, 2023, Mr. Jackson attributed the projected depreciation to the gradual erosion of the Cedi’s relative stability against the dollar as the government prepares to service its debts, which are denominated in dollars, later in the year.
Notably, the Cedi has exhibited resilience against the dollar and the British pound on both the interbank and retail market in recent weeks, with a modest 0.4% appreciation against the dollar while remaining steady against the pound.
However, Mr. Jackson emphasized that this stability has been upheld due to the government’s temporary halt in paying its debts since December 2022.
As the government gradually resumes payment obligations, the resultant heightened demand for dollars is expected to exert pressure on the Cedi, leading to its predicted depreciation.
“The Cedi has been relatively stable against the dollar because Government has not been paying its bills (servicing debts) since December 2022, but Government will soon begin to pay its bills.
“My forecast indicates that the cedi will hit GHS 15 to $1 at the close of the year, this is because there will be extra pressure on the dollar and the relative stability of the Cedi will go away slowly,” he remarked.
Mr. Jackson’s forecast highlights a shift from the current exchange rate of GHS 11 to $1 as reported by the Bank of Ghana. Additionally, the Cedi currently stands at GHS 14 to £1 based on the same exchange rate data.
It is important to note that this projection by Mr Jackson reflects his own analysis and insights, taking into account the prevailing economic conditions and potential market dynamics. As with any forecast, various factors could impact the actual outcome, and therefore, market participants should closely monitor developments in the currency markets.
