MPC to Stay Dovish with Another 300bps Rate Cut in September
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) is expected to maintain its dovish stance with a second successive cut in the policy rate at its September 2025 meeting.
According to IC Research, the current inflation outturn, combined with the nominal policy rate of 25.0%, translates into an ex-post real policy rate of 13.5%. Without a cut, this could widen to 15.4% in September, leaving ample room for further monetary easing.
“In view of our cautious stance on utility tariff risk, we estimate a likely 300 basis points cut in the policy rate to 22.0%,” the firm noted.
The MPC in July 2025 lowered the policy rate by 300bps to 25%, marking the first major step towards easing borrowing costs after a period of monetary tightening.
Headline inflation continued to ease, falling to 11.5% in August 2025, the lowest level since October 2021. At this rate, inflation is below the authorities’ end-2025 target of 11.9%, strengthening the case for another policy adjustment.
Significant Disinflation Expected in September
IC Research projects a notable disinflation in September 2025, largely driven by favourable base effects.
“We anticipate a fourth consecutive month of annual transport fare deflation in September as the 15% reduction in transport fare (in May 2025) continues to support favourable base drift in transport CPI, although the month-on-month re-acceleration will continue,” it said.
The restart of industrial trawler fishing and ongoing crop harvests are also expected to sustain food disinflation.
“Ultimately, we project a more modest uptick in the overall CPI compared to the upsurge in September 2024, yielding a year-to-date inflation of 9.6% in September 2025 (-190 basis points) despite an estimated month-on-month acceleration to 1.0%,” IC Research added.
