Ghana’s Current Crude Output Far Below Projected 500,000 bpd – Dr Theo Acheampong
Ghana, according to Petroleum Economist and Political Risk Analyst, Dr Theo Acheampong, should by now be producing at least 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) — a target set in the early years of the country’s oil exploration.
However, the current daily production level of about 125,000 barrels per day falls significantly short of this projection, raising concerns over the underperformance of the upstream petroleum sector.
At the present Brent crude oil price of US$61.10 per barrel, Ghana’s annual crude oil receipts are estimated at US$2.78 billion, with the Government targeting end-of-year oil revenue of about US$1 billion.
Had production reached the expected 500,000 bpd, government earnings could have exceeded US$11.1 billion, representing an unrealised amount of approximately US$8 billion in potential revenue.
Dr Acheampong attributes this shortfall primarily to the lack of new oil drilling activities since 2017, which he says stems from regulatory uncertainty and investor apprehension towards Ghana’s oil and gas environment.
“We don’t have any new field that has come on stream since 2016–2017 when the Sankofa field began production. For all the noise we make, it’s only really three fields — Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa — that are sustaining oil output in the country,” Dr Acheampong stated.
He made these remarks during the NorvanReports, Economic Governance Platform, and Ghana Anti-Corruption Coalition X Space Discussion on the theme, “Beyond Declining Barrels: Can Ghana’s Petroleum Revenues Still Power Development?”
According to him, the decline in investor confidence over the years is self-inflicted, resulting from fiscal unpredictability, policy inconsistencies, and a history of “forced unitisation” disputes that deterred international oil companies.
“Several investors have told me they no longer want to touch Ghana because of uncertainty about fiscal and regulatory stability,” he noted.
Despite some recent discoveries and ENI’s commitment to invest US$1.5 billion in the sector, Dr Acheampong cautioned that Ghana is no longer among the most attractive destinations for upstream investment, as new oil frontiers such as Namibia and Guyana now compete strongly for investor capital.
Nonetheless, he remains optimistic that Ghana retains a 20–30-year production window to harness its oil and gas resources for domestic energy security — provided the country undertakes urgent reforms to reposition the sector.
Outlining a five-point roadmap, Dr Acheampong called for:
Improved exploration data and seismic mapping, particularly in the central and eastern basins;
Enhanced asset stewardship to maximise recovery rates and production efficiency;
Infrastructure-led exploration to integrate smaller marginal fields into existing FPSO hubs;
Regulatory and fiscal reform to attract diverse investors and ensure transparency in licensing; and
Strengthening local content and supply chain linkages to drive industrial growth.
“There’s no silver bullet. We need to do the hard work to reverse the decline — attract more investment, develop more fields, and build a stable regulatory regime,” he emphasised.
Meanwhile, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) reports that Ghana’s crude oil production declined by 25.92 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
Total output from the Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) fields dropped to 18.42 million barrels, down from 24.86 million barrels during the same period in 2024.
PIAC attributed the sharp decline mainly to operational shutdowns, natural reservoir decline, and maintenance activities across the three producing fields.
With the country currently locked out of international capital markets and heavily dependent on domestic borrowing, analysts note that the unrealised US$8 billion in potential oil revenue would have provided a significant fiscal cushion for the economy.
