New and Independent Fiscal Council Could Serve as Ghana’s Exit Mechanism From IMF Oversight – Dr Theo Acheampong
Petroleum Economist and Political Risk Analyst, Dr Theo Acheampong, has argued that the yet-to-be established Fiscal Council under the revised Public Financial Management (Amendment) Act, 2025, could serve as Ghana’s long-awaited exit mechanism from International Monetary Fund (IMF) supervision, provided it is empowered with independence and resources to deliver credible assessments.
Speaking during the NorvanReports, Economic Governance Platform (EGP) and Ghana Anti-Corruption Coalition (GACC) X Space Discussion themed “From Watchdog to Advisor: Should Ghana’s Fiscal Council Only Police or Also Shape Fiscal Policy?” on Sunday, September 14, Dr Acheampong noted that markets would react strongly to the council’s independent review of fiscal data and budgetary projections.
“As soon as the budget is read by the finance minister, and the fiscal council comes up with its own technical assessment – say disputing revenue, tax or debt targets – the markets are going to pick up on that signal. You will see it in Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, and bond yields will immediately respond,” he said.
He stressed that credibility of the council will rest on three main factors: timely access to reliable data, the professional independence of its board and secretariat, and the quality of reporting and communication with both citizens and investors.
The revised PFM Act requires the Fiscal Council to publish half-year assessment reports and an annual report by April each year, similar to the reporting obligations of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC). Provisions in the law also compel the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana, Ghana Statistical Service and other agencies to supply data to the council within 15 days of request.
Dr Acheampong, however, warned that without guaranteed financial independence akin to the judiciary’s protected budgetary allocation, the council risks being reduced to a “toothless bulldog.” He called for constitutional safeguards to secure multi-annual funding and shield the institution from political interference.
He further likened the council’s role to the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), noting that in modern financial markets “a fiscal council parroting government rhetoric will quickly lose credibility, with painful consequences for Ghana’s cost of borrowing.”
The 2025 PFM Amendment Act not only establishes the Fiscal Council but also sets ambitious fiscal rules, including a primary surplus target of at least 1.5% of GDP and a public debt ceiling of 45% of GDP by 2034.
Ghana previously set up a Fiscal Council in 2019 to enforce a 5% fiscal deficit ceiling, but its work was suspended in 2020 following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, the country has lacked an effective fiscal watchdog.
