Nigeria’s economy according to a new report by Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), will be growing at an average rate of 2.4 per cent over the next five (5) years – 2021 to 2025.
The average growth of the Continent’s biggest economy is further anticipated to decline to 2.2 per cent for the period between 2026 to 2035.
The UK-based consultancy group made the assertions In its annual world economic league table of the growth prospects of 193 countries released on Saturday, December 26, 2020.
A steady rise in Nigeria’s economic fortunes has seen the country move from the 38th position on CEBR’s economic league table in 2005 to the 27th position in 2019.
But with the projected 2.4 per cent average growth from 2021 – 2025 and a further decline by 0.2 percentage points to 2.2 per cent for the period between 2026 – 2035, CEBR indicates that Nigeria by 2035 will still remain at the 27th position on its economic league table.
CEBR opines that, considering the fact that certain policies appear not to be delivering results and attaining expected outcomes, Nigeria should focus on studying governance models of relevant countries with the intention of comparing and benchmarking their experiences and explore differences and similarities in practice.
This does not imply Nigeria copying or importing any model; but rather to learn from their experiences and see how they tackled similar problems in the past; and are currently tackling similar problems.
Some Key highlights from the report
- Global gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, in the biggest one-year fall since the second world war.
- The US economy is expected to contract by 5% this year, making China to narrow the gap with its biggest rival.
- China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously predicted.
- Thanks to China’s “skillful” management of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the country outperforming its rival during the global COVID-19 pandemic.
- CEBR expects the value of China’s economy when measured in dollars to exceed that of the US by 2028.
- Japan is expected to remain in third place in dollar terms but is likely to be overtaken by India in the early part of the next decade.
- This would push Germany from fourth to fifth place.
- The UK, currently the fifth-biggest economy according to the CEBR, is expected to fall to sixth place by 2024.
- However, GDP in dollars is expected to be 23% higher than that in France by 2035, mainly due to the growing digital economy.
- India, after overtaking France and the UK last year, had fallen back behind the UK as a result of a sharp fall in the value of the rupee. But the dip will be short-lived, with the world’s second most populous country on course to be the third biggest economy by 2035.
- World’s pandemic recovery would likely be dominated by higher inflation rather than slower growth – a challenge to governments like Britain’s which have borrowed huge sums to fund COVID responses.
- Environmental issues would start to have a serious impact on the shape of the world economy over the next 15 years following a period in which the effects of global heating had become apparent more than previously feared.
- Sea levels are expected to have risen by 45cm from the 2000 base by 2035. This compares with the smaller 20cm rise by 2030 predicted two years ago.
- There would be weaker demand for fossil fuels and lower oil prices. The cost of a barrel of crude would fall below $30 by 2035, considering that more countries are making plans to make the transition to net carbon zero economy in the coming decades.
