Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire to see Limited Gains From Higher Cocoa Prices – Fitch Solutions
Despite global cocoa prices reaching historic highs, Africa’s top producers—including Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—are expected to capture only limited economic benefits, according to new analysis from Fitch Solutions.
The research firm noted that average cocoa prices hit US$8,900 per tonne in the first seven months of 2025, more than three times the 2005–2023 average of US$2,500 per tonne, driven by climate-related supply disruptions in West Africa that resulted in three consecutive years of global deficits.
Although Fitch projects prices will ease to an average of US$6,900 per tonne over 2026–2030 as global stocks recover, levels will still remain well above the historical trend. However, it cautioned that structurally higher prices are unlikely to deliver significant economic windfalls for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
“Our view that structurally higher cocoa prices will not create major economic windfalls for Africa’s cocoa-producing nations in the coming years rests on three key factors,” Fitch Solutions stated.
Limited feedthrough to farmers
The world’s two largest cocoa producers set farmgate prices through government-run marketing boards. While both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have increased farmgate prices in recent seasons, Fitch noted that “the gap between farmgate and international prices remains wide.”
Fiscal and operational constraints limit governments’ ability to pass on global price gains, meaning farmers’ incomes, though improved, remain far below international benchmarks. This restricts the broader impact on household consumption and domestic demand.
Smuggling risk
The persistent price gap, Fitch warned, is fuelling smuggling into neighbouring countries such as Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo, where cocoa prices are not government-controlled.
“As Ivorian and Ghanaian farmers will be able to access higher prices in neighbouring countries, we anticipate that smuggling activity will intensify,” Fitch said, pointing to unexplained export surges in those markets as evidence of cross-border diversion.
While such activity boosts export earnings in neighbouring economies, it undermines Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire’s foreign exchange inflows. Fitch added that although current risks are cushioned by elevated gold prices, sustained cocoa smuggling will erode the two countries’ resilience to future external shocks.
