Deloitte Projects Continued Disinflation but Warns of External Shocks as Ghana Targets 8% Inflation in 2026
Deloitte has projected that Ghana’s disinflationary path is likely to continue into 2026, noting that inflation could fall below the medium-term benchmark target of 8% if current macroeconomic conditions are maintained. The commentary, contained in the firm’s analysis of the 2026 Budget Statement, comes at a time when headline inflation stands at 8% as of October 2025 — a level government has targeted to maintain through 2026.
According to Deloitte, the sharp moderation in both food and non-food inflation throughout 2025 was largely supported by the stability of the Ghana cedi and reduced pressures from imported inflation. The firm cautioned, however, that sustaining these gains will require decisive steps to deal with long-standing structural constraints in domestic food production.
Deloitte stressed the need to accelerate government’s Agriculture for Economic Transformation agenda to reduce the economy’s vulnerability to imported food price shocks. It further warned that global geopolitical tensions in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, alongside evolving trade realignments, continue to pose significant risks to commodity markets, global inflation and external financing conditions.
“In the face of these potential spillovers, government must continue to build external buffers and deploy targeted contingency measures to safeguard domestic price stability,” the firm noted. Deloitte added that policy measures should be designed to mitigate possible downside risks associated with volatility in the global prices of gold, oil and cocoa — all of which remain critical to Ghana’s external inflows.
The firm expects the relative stability of the cedi to be broadly sustained in 2026, supported by anticipated inflows from multilateral partners, improved fiscal consolidation efforts and ongoing monetary tightening. But it cautioned that this outlook hinges on continuous policy vigilance, careful management of external vulnerabilities and strong implementation of structural reforms to strengthen long-term macroeconomic resilience.
Despite improvements in inflation and overall stability indicators, Deloitte observed that average lending rates in Ghana remain significantly higher than those in comparable markets in the subregion. The high cost of credit, it said, continues to weigh heavily on business operations.
Deloitte highlighted the need to address persistent structural challenges that elevate lending risks, arguing that resolving these issues will help drive a sustainable decline in borrowing costs for enterprises. The firm also called for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to support reforms that reduce lending risk and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy.
