Opta supercomputer reveals Premier League title winning chances
Liverpool were the big winners of the Easter weekend and are now the favourites to win the Premier League title.
The Reds came from behind to beat Brighton 2-1 at Anfield on Sunday, with Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah combining to secure a fourth win in the last five league outings.
Together with Arsenal’s stalemate draw against Manchester City a few hours later, the win sent Liverpool back to the top of the table with 67 points and nine games left.
Arsenal slipped to second two points behind Jurgen Klopp’s men, while City are a point further back.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Sunday’s results mean Liverpool are now firmly in the box seat to lift the Premier League trophy and deliver a fairytale finale to Klopp’s nine-year spell at Anfield.
The Reds have a 47.7 percent chance of winning their first league title since they triumphed in 2020 at the end of a Covid-19 affected season, up from 35.3 percent before this weekend.
Conversely, City’s chances of making it four titles in a row have declined from 45.9 percent to 33.5 percent following their draw against Arsenal – their second in a row and third in their last six Premier League games.
According to Opta, at just over a one-in-three chance, this is the lowest City’s title chances have been at any point this season.
At 18.8 percent, meanwhile, Arsenal’s chances of ending a 20-year wait for the title, remained unchanged following their draw at the Etihad.
The three title contenders will not meet again this season, but their respective run-ins are remarkably balanced.
The average current position of teams City and Arsenal still have to play over their remaining nine fixtures is exactly 10, while for Liverpool is 10.3.
The league leaders, however, have a number of potentially tricky trips to negotiate. Liverpool face Manchester United at Old Trafford on Sunday and have three away games in the space of a week later this month, when they travel to Fulham, Everton and West Ham.
A visit to Villa Park on the penultimate day of the campaign could also prove crucial, particularly as it comes a week after Liverpool host Tottenham.
Arsenal and City also both have to play Spurs, with Mikel Arteta’s team visiting their North London rivals on April 28, just five days after they host Chelsea.
Like Liverpool, the Gunners also still have a trip to Old Trafford to contend with on May 11 and host Aston Villa in two weeks.
Unai Emery’s team visit the Etihad on Wednesday, when Liverpool host Sheffield United and Arsenal welcome Luton.
Three of City’s next four games – against Palace, Brighton and Nottingham Forest – are away from home, with the visit of Luton on April 13 the only exception.
Guardiola also takes his team to Tottenham, with a date yet to be confirmed due to City’s involvement in the FA Cup semi-final later this month.
