BoG’s MPC Opens 127th Meeting Amid Strong Disinflation and Expectations of Another Rate Cut
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana begins its 127th meeting today, November 24, 2025, with deliberations expected to focus on the macroeconomic developments shaping Ghana’s recovery path and the central bank’s policy stance for the remainder of the year.
The meeting opens at a time when the Ghana Cedi, after months of relative stability, has come under mild pressure. The currency’s recent weakness has been partly attributed to increased dollar demand ahead of the Christmas trading season, though the BoG has described the earlier depreciation seen this year as a market correction rather than a shift in fundamentals.
Inflation Falls to 8%, Strengthening Calls for More Easing
Consumer inflation eased to 8% in October, supported by tight monetary conditions, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and improved food supply. The rate now sits comfortably below the year-end target of 11.9%, reinforcing expectations that the central bank could continue its easing cycle.
Ghana’s growth momentum has also strengthened. Real GDP—including oil—expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024. Non-oil GDP grew by 7.8%, compared with 5.7% in the previous year, driven by improved activity in services, construction and agriculture.
Aggressive Easing Cycle Already Underway
The MPC initiated a significant easing cycle this year, cutting the policy rate by 300 basis points in July—from 28% to 25%—and by a further 350 basis points in September to 21.5%. Governor Dr Johnson Asiama at the time explained that the moves were intended to support credit expansion and bolster economic recovery, though he warned that risks remained from potential utility tariff adjustments and lingering forex pressures.
With inflation now at multi-year lows and the real policy rate still about 10 percentage points above headline inflation, analysts say there is ample room for further monetary easing. Market expectations point to a 100 to 250 basis point cut, contingent on continued fiscal restraint and stable external conditions, particularly commodity prices and forex market dynamics.
Balancing Recovery with Currency Stability
The MPC’s challenge will be to weigh the need to support the recovery against renewed pressures in the forex market. The mild depreciation of the Cedi in recent weeks is expected to feature prominently in the Committee’s discussions, given its potential to feed into inflation expectations.
The Committee’s meeting will conclude on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, with a press briefing at which the central bank will announce its policy decision and provide an updated outlook on inflation, growth and financial stability.
