Ghana May Struggle to Resist Superpower Pressure on Mining Policy – Dr. Manteaw
Ghana could face mounting geopolitical pressure over its mining policy reforms, raising questions about the country’s ability to withstand influence from major global powers as it seeks to capture a greater share of revenues from soaring gold prices.
According to extractives governance expert, Dr. Steve Manteaw, countries like Ghana may ultimately struggle to hold firm when powerful nations push back against policies that affect the interests of multinational mining companies and their home governments.
“In the face of superpower pushback, I doubt it. When the pressure mounts, we will likely have to yield. We are a small country; we cannot stand the pressure from these big powers. In the interim, I foresee a lot of tax avoidance happening within the industry,” he told Evans Mensah on JoyNews.
His comments come as Ghana prepares to roll out a major overhaul of its mining royalty regime, a move that could reshape the fiscal landscape of the country’s extractive sector and potentially trigger pushback from global investors and governments whose companies operate in the industry.
Ghana, effective Tuesday, 10th March, 2026, will implement a new sliding-scale royalty regime for gold, linking government revenue from mining directly to global commodity prices. The policy replaces the long-standing flat 5% royalty previously paid by mining companies in Africa’s top gold-producing nation.
The new system links government revenue from gold production directly to global market prices, allowing the state to capture a larger share of windfall profits when commodity prices surge.
Under the policy, royalty payments rise as gold prices increase, reaching as high as 12% when bullion prices hit $4,500 per ounce. With gold currently trading above $5,000 per ounce, mining firms could immediately fall within the highest band of the tax structure.
The reform reflects a broader trend across resource-rich nations in the Global South seeking to secure a larger share of revenues from their natural resources amid record commodity prices.
The Ghana Chamber of Mines says companies are still evaluating the policy’s potential implications for long-term operations and investment decisions.
Dr. Manteaw, who chairs the Ghana chapter of the global transparency initiative in extractive industries, said the debate around mining taxes cannot be separated from global geopolitical dynamics.
He noted that commodities such as gold have historically been subject to geopolitical influence, with governments and private sector actors often lobbying for policies that protect their economic interests.
“The question of commodities has always been subject to geopolitical considerations, whether we like it or not. Whether the government has thought about it or not, at some point pressure will be mounted by private sector actors who represent certain countries’ interests and they may try to make determinations in line with that. It’s a very fine balance.”
“Having said that, we should also recognize that globally, countries are asking: what do nations in the Global South need to do to properly manage their mineral governance sector and crucially benefit more? How you navigate that benefit has always been a point of discussion. Some countries use taxes, for example, and we are having ongoing conversations about what this will mean,” he explained.
Countries including the United States, the United Kingdom and China host multinational companies with significant stakes in Ghana’s mining industry, potentially amplifying diplomatic and commercial pressure when fiscal policies change.
Analysts say such dynamics are increasingly common as competition for strategic minerals intensifies globally.
For Ghana, the challenge will be balancing its ambition to maximise resource revenues with the need to maintain investor confidence in a sector that remains one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange and government income.
Dr. Steve Manteaw argued that resource-rich countries across the Global South are increasingly asking how to strengthen mineral governance while ensuring they benefit more from their natural resources.
“The question is how countries properly manage their mineral governance sector and benefit more,” he said.
He suggested that policymakers and industry players could rely more heavily on data to guide decisions about fiscal reforms, particularly in modelling how different royalty regimes might affect mining operations under varying gold price scenarios.
Such analysis could help policymakers demonstrate whether new policies are economically sustainable for both the state and private investors.
Beyond geopolitical pressures, Dr. Manteaw also pointed to long-standing governance weaknesses within Ghana’s extractive sector that could undermine revenue collection.
He noted that tax enforcement mechanisms remain inconsistent despite policy commitments made more than a decade ago.
In 2015, government announced plans to collect mineral royalties on a monthly basis rather than quarterly in order to improve monitoring and revenue flows. However, the relevant regulations have yet to be amended to enforce the policy.
As a result, some companies pay royalties monthly voluntarily while others continue under the existing system.
“Already, tax collection in the industry is not very effective. As far back as 2015, then-Finance Minister, Seth Tekpe went to Parliament and declared that henceforth, we would collect mineral royalties on a monthly basis, instead of quarterly as per the law. To date, we have not amended the relevant regulation to enforce that. Some companies pay monthly voluntarily; others do so in goodwill. That shows how weak enforcement can be,” he indicated.
He also highlighted gaps in coordination between regulators and tax authorities that could create opportunities for tax avoidance or transfer pricing manipulation.
Mining companies are required to submit annual work programmes to regulators, but these plans are not routinely shared with tax authorities, limiting oversight of operational and financial reporting.
Such governance gaps, he said, could allow companies to exploit loopholes in the system, particularly during periods of policy uncertainty.
Ghana remains Africa’s largest gold producer and one of the continent’s most attractive mining destinations, hosting major multinational companies and large-scale operations.
However, analysts say fiscal reforms combined with geopolitical pressures could introduce a new layer of risk for investors.
For governments, the stakes are equally high. Rising gold prices present an opportunity to increase public revenue, but aggressive fiscal changes may trigger pushback from industry and international stakeholders.
As Ghana moves ahead with its new royalty regime, the country could find itself navigating not only domestic policy debates but also the complex geopolitics that often accompany control over valuable natural resources.
