- Cheaper Fertiliser is Forecast For 2027; The Real Question is Who Will Benefit
Ghanaian farmers could enter 2027 with a more favourable global fertiliser market. The World Bank projects that international fertiliser prices will decline by 12% next year, after rising by an estimated 14% in 2026.
But whether that forecast brings relief to farmers will depend on more than the direction of the global price index: the cost of importing, the cedi, distribution and access to inputs will determine what farmers actually pay.
The forecast is not a prediction of an immediate or uniform reduction in local prices. The Bank expects average fertiliser prices to return to their 2025 levels in 2027, following this year’s increase.
Its category forecasts point to different movements: urea prices are projected to rise by 21% in 2026 before falling by 16% in 2027; di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) is expected to rise by 7% and then fall by 18%; and muriate of potash (MOP) is forecast to increase by 10% before declining by 9%.
These distinctions matter because farmers and importers do not buy a single abstract index. They purchase particular products, and the relative importance of urea, phosphate and potash varies across crops and fertiliser blends.
A 12% average decline therefore will not translate mechanically into the same percentage cut for every product or every farmer.
The timing of the forecast also deserves attention. The global fertiliser price index fell by 22% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter and declined further in October, reversing the surge associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the full-year average is still projected to rise by 14%, because prices were elevated earlier in the year. A sharp short-term fall can therefore coexist with a higher annual average and does not guarantee that locally purchased fertiliser has already become cheaper.
For Ghana, global movements matter because the country relies on imported fertiliser. Data in the 2025 Ghana Fertilizer Statistics Overview show that Russia supplied 32% of Ghana’s fertiliser imports in 2024, followed by Italy at 17% and China at 14%. About 94% of imports came from 11 countries.
This concentration exposes supply to events far beyond Ghana’s control, including shipping disruptions, export restrictions and changing production costs.
The World Bank’s forecast rests on an improvement in supply conditions: easing input costs, recovering exports and greater supply from producers outside the Gulf region. But the risks are not evenly balanced.
The Bank says they “remain tilted to the upside”, with renewed Middle East conflict, shipping disruption or export restrictions capable of reversing the expected decline.
That warning is particularly relevant because fertiliser production is tied to energy and industrial inputs, while international supply depends on trade routes and government decisions. A disruption can quickly change availability and import costs.
If Ghana waits for the forecast decline to materialise before arranging supply, farmers could still face high prices or shortages during critical planting windows.
Even if world prices fall as expected, the exchange rate and the costs of freight, insurance, port handling and domestic distribution will shape the landed price. A weaker cedi could offset part of a decline in dollar-denominated prices.
So could higher shipping charges or margins along the supply chain. Conversely, timely procurement, predictable access to foreign exchange and efficient distribution could help more of the global reduction reach farm gates.
This is why procurement and distribution policy may be as important as the forecast itself. Planning purchases against seasonal demand, diversifying sources and publishing clear information about availability and prices could reduce the risk that farmers encounter delayed deliveries or sharp local price differences. Government support, where provided, is most useful when it reaches the farmers and crops facing the greatest affordability constraints, rather than being judged only by the size of allocations.
The price outlook also intersects with food affordability. Fertiliser is one component of farm costs, alongside seed, labour, fuel, transport and finance. Lower fertiliser prices could ease production pressure, but they do not alone guarantee higher yields or cheaper food.
Farmers must also be able to obtain inputs on time and apply the right products in suitable quantities. Poor access can limit production even when global prices are falling.
For households, the potential benefit is indirect and conditional. If cheaper inputs lower production costs, farmers maintain or increase application, and harvests are adequate, supply could improve and put downward pressure on some food prices.
But that chain can break at every stage: input costs may remain high locally; farmers may reduce usage after an expensive season; weather may damage yields; and transport or storage costs may keep food prices elevated.
The global fertilizer forecast is therefore an opportunity for Ghana to manage risk, not a guarantee of relief. The 2026 increase shows how quickly external shocks can raise costs, while the projected 2027 decline offers a window to strengthen sourcing and delivery.
A more diversified supplier base could reduce exposure to any one market; better procurement timing could avoid buying at the peak; and transparent monitoring could show whether reductions are reaching importers, distributors and farmers.
The test will be visible not in the global index but in local availability, affordability and use. If international prices fall while farmers continue to face costly or unreliable supplies, the forecast will have offered little practical protection.
If Ghana can convert a more favourable market into timely access to suitable inputs, the decline could support farm production and soften one source of pressure on food costs.
