- GSE Retreat Opens Fresh Buying Opportunities After Record Rally — SIC Brokerage
Ghana’s equity market is presenting renewed buying opportunities after retreating from record highs earlier this year, according to SIC Brokerage, which says lower valuations, resilient corporate earnings and declining fixed-income yields have improved the relative appeal of selected stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange.
In its Q3 2026 Stock Recommendation Report dated September 16, SIC Brokerage said the market’s extraordinary rally has unfolded in two distinct phases rather than as a continuous climb. The GSE Composite Index reached a high of 15,908.77 points on March 18, representing an 81.39% year-to-date gain, before pulling back through April and May. A second rally pushed the index to a 76.20% year-to-date gain by July 30, but subsequent declines through August and September have left it 8.09% below its March peak.
Financial stocks have corrected more sharply. The GSE Financial Stocks Index peaked at 10,448.22 points on March 17, equivalent to a 124.83% year-to-date advance, but has since fallen 26.77% from that level after three consecutive monthly declines.
SIC Brokerage attributes much of the pullback to profit-taking and valuation reassessment after companies released FY2025, Q1 and H1 2026 results. It said prices on some counters had risen ahead of what underlying earnings could support, while banking stocks were also affected by margin compression as the policy rate declined to 14%.
The correction, however, has also pushed several stocks back to single-digit earnings multiples, while dividend expectations have remained relatively firm. SIC Brokerage argues that Treasury bill yields in the mid-single digits are providing less competition for capital, potentially improving the relative attractiveness of equities for investors willing to accept higher risk.
The market’s gains remain substantial despite the retreat. The report shows IIL up 980% year-to-date, CLYD up 976.09%, HORDS up 550%, SIC Insurance up 352.50%, CPC up 340% and DIGICUT up 300%. Other strong performers include Republic Bank Ghana, DAS Pharma, Standard Chartered Bank Ghana, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, GOIL, Unilever Ghana and Enterprise Group.
The rally has therefore produced wide differences in valuation and performance across individual counters, making stock selection increasingly important as investors move from broad market momentum towards company-specific earnings and balance-sheet strength.
SIC Brokerage’s most aggressive valuation call is on MTN Ghana.
The brokerage projects a 12-month share price of GH¢16.10 for the telecommunications company, against GH¢6.77 in the report. MTN Ghana’s H1 2026 service revenue rose 32.3% year-on-year to GH¢14.96 billion, while EBITDA increased 39.8% to GH¢9.26 billion. Profit after tax climbed 43.29% to GH¢5.13 billion.
SIC said MTN Ghana’s medium-to-long-term prospects remain supported by increasing digital adoption, rising data consumption, fintech growth and continued infrastructure investment, although it also identified global trade and geopolitical uncertainty as potential risks to costs.
Banks remain another major area of interest despite pressure from falling interest rates.
SIC Brokerage places a BUY recommendation on Ecobank Ghana, citing its strong market position, financial soundness and growth prospects. Ecobank Ghana’s H1 2026 profit after tax rose 13.78% to GH¢868.63 million, while total assets increased 31.39% to GH¢56.11 billion. The brokerage assigns the stock a 12-month target price of GH¢59.20 against GH¢37.00.
GCB Bank is also viewed positively. Customer deposits increased 48.76% year-on-year to GH¢51.18 billion in H1 2026, while net interest income rose 17.11% to GH¢2.35 billion and profit increased 45.89% to GH¢1.22 billion. SIC projects a GH¢48.59 target price against GH¢38.91.
Elsewhere, Enterprise Group has emerged as one of the market’s stronger insurance-related counters, with H1 profit rising 26.27% to GH¢204.93 million and profit before tax increasing 35.07% to GH¢256.48 million. SIC Brokerage maintains a BUY view and assigns a GH¢8.05 target price against GH¢7.00.
SIC Insurance has delivered an even stronger share-price run, gaining 352.50% year-to-date. Its H1 profit rose 42.56% to GH¢31.35 million, supported by higher investment income, improved underwriting performance and a stronger cash position. SIC Brokerage gives the stock a GH¢7.44 12-month target against GH¢5.43.
Fan Milk also stands out for the strength of its underlying earnings improvement. Revenue rose 25.45% year-on-year to GH¢635.46 million, while profit after tax jumped 214.29% to GH¢81.86 million as lower cost of sales helped lift gross margins. The brokerage projects a GH¢16.80 target against GH¢14.00.
The report also places positive long-term views on TotalEnergies Marketing Ghana, Société Générale Ghana and First Atlantic Bank, although each presents a different earnings and valuation profile.
SIC Brokerage’s outlook ultimately rests on whether corporate results can justify valuations after the market’s rapid appreciation earlier in the year.
The brokerage says performance through the remainder of 2026 will depend heavily on Q3 and Q4 earnings and whether current macroeconomic conditions are sustained, particularly lower inflation, reduced interest rates and continued investor confidence.
The wider investment case is therefore becoming more selective.
The first phase of the 2026 rally rewarded broad exposure to Ghanaian equities. The next phase is likely to depend more heavily on earnings delivery, dividend sustainability, valuation discipline and balance-sheet quality.
For investors, the retreat from the March peak may have reduced some of the valuation pressure created by the earlier surge, but it has not removed company-specific risk.
SIC Brokerage itself cautions that its report is informational and does not constitute investment advice, with estimates, assumptions and recommendations subject to change as market conditions evolve.
What the Q3 report makes clear is that Ghanaian equities remain one of the strongest-performing asset classes in the domestic market this year, but the opportunity is shifting from simply riding the rally to identifying which companies can continue converting economic stability into earnings growth and shareholder returns.
