El Nino, adverse weather conditions in Cote d’Ivoire to inflate value of Ghana’s cocoa exports
Fitch Solutions assert that Ghana is set to witness a notable shift in its export dynamics as weather-induced ripples in cocoa production and a robust gold sector come into focus.
The research firm notes that adverse weather conditions in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, coupled with concerns about the impending El Niño, are set to cause cocoa prices to surge, thereby inflating the value of Ghana’s cocoa exports.
“The value of Ghana’s cocoa exports will be inflated by a significant rally in cocoa prices due to adverse weather conditions in neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire (the world’s largest cocoa producer) and concerns about El Niño, which is typically associated with drier weather conditions in West Africa and can weaken cocoa production,” states Fitch Solutions.
Cocoa price rose to the highest in more than 12 years last month (July 2023) as traders and chocolate producers face restricted supplies.
Prices for the benchmark cocoa contract at the Intercontinental Exchange in New York rose to $3,429 per metric ton, the highest since mid-March 2011, closing later at $3,407, or up 1.4%.
Cocoa is currently among the hottest agricultural commodities, mostly due to an unusual fall in production in the western part of Africa, a region that supplies most of the raw material to chocolate makers worldwide, and the prospect of possibly negative weather going forward.
Ghana and Ivory Coast, as well as Nigeria and Cameroon, are located in one of the areas which analysts say could suffer from drier-than-normal weather during several months ahead due to the El Nino pattern that is under development.
“Cocoa production is usually weaker in an El Nino year. We don’t know how strong this current El Nino will be, but forecasters say it will probably be strong,” said Rabobank cocoa analyst Paul Joules.
“The 2023/24 mid crop could be affected, as well as the 2024/25 main crop,” he added, referring to the two annual cocoa crops African countries harvest.
Touching on gold production, Fitch Solutions highlights that efforts to integrate artisanal miners into the official gold production statistics, along with the resumption of operations at Asante Gold’s Bibiani gold mine, are poised to fuel a solid 8.1% growth in gold production for 2023. This anticipated uptick in gold output is expected to provide a welcome boost to the nation’s export sector.
Fitch Solutions also underscores that the moderation in global energy prices could exert a dampening effect on Ghana’s crude oil exports, constituting around 30% of its total export basket. Yet, this potential setback is set to be counterbalanced by the healthy growth projections for gold and cocoa exports.
In light of these intricate dynamics, the trajectory of Ghana’s export growth is poised to undergo a transformation. Following a robust growth of 18.7% in 2022, Fitch Solutions projects a more nuanced narrative for 2023, with export growth expected to contract by 8.7%. This shift underpins the intricate interplay of global market trends, climatic conditions, and the nation’s internal strategies.
The coming year is thus likely to bear witness to a recalibration of Ghana’s export landscape, where the surging tide of cocoa prices and the steadfast performance of the gold sector will navigate the headwinds posed by energy price moderation.
