Fitch Solutions Projects Cedi Stability Through 2025-2026, Cautions on Gold Price Risks
Fitch Solutions is projecting a stable outlook for the Ghana cedi through 2025 and 2026, citing strong external buffers and favourable commodity prices as key drivers.
According to the UK-based research firm, the local currency is expected to maintain its recent strength on the back of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) robust gross international reserves—currently standing at US$7.9 billion—and elevated gold prices.
In its Q3 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa Macroeconomic Update titled, “What Our Clients Want to Know”, Fitch Solutions noted that while the current dynamics favour the cedi, potential risks tied to commodity price volatility—particularly gold—could threaten the outlook.
“A hypothetical decline in gold prices, which could potentially be triggered by a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, would quickly erode Ghana’s export earnings, push the current account back into deficit, and undermine reserve adequacy,” the firm stated.
“In such a scenario, the central bank would struggle to defend the cedi and would likely be forced to let the currency weaken,” it added.
Ghana’s gold exports have played a pivotal role in supporting the cedi in recent months, amid tightening global financial conditions and ongoing debt restructuring talks with official and private creditors.
The BoG reports that the cedi has appreciated by 40.7% against the US dollar between January and July 2025, trading at GH¢10.45 to US$1 on the interbank market as at end-July. The domestic unit recorded notable gains in May and June, appreciating by 43% and 42.6% respectively against the greenback.
Similarly, the cedi strengthened against other major trading currencies. It appreciated by 24.2% against the euro to GH¢12.25 in June and by 31.2% against the British pound to GH¢14.02.
Currently, the cedi is trading at GH¢10.50 on the interbank market and GH¢12.00 on the retail forex market.
The BoG’s tight monetary stance and increased foreign exchange inflows from remittances and cocoa syndicated loans have also contributed to the currency’s bullish performance.
However, Fitch’s warning suggests that sustaining currency stability will hinge largely on the continued strength of gold prices and prudent macroeconomic management.
