Reworking the Global Order: Why President Trump Will Win Some and Lose Some
The actions of President Trump since assuming office as the 47th President of the United States of America seem to obfuscate the “Global Order” established post-World War II, to address transnational issues within the framework of multilateralism. The current unicentric world order, which enforces America’s hegemony, is perceived by Trump as a mechanism that enables other nations to exploit the United States, ultimately undermining his country’s strength. Consequently, President Trump is working to scale back America’s global role and has urged other countries to increase their investments, particularly in defense.
President Trump has already withdrawn the U.S. from the global Climate Change Accord, reached in Paris in 2015, allowing nations through the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) mechanism to cut greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Also, the U.S. has exited the World Health Organisation (WHO), citing the agency’s unimpressive role in ameliorating global health insecurity, particularly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and other health crises. One could expect that there will be many more withdrawals to come during his tenure. These developments manifest the U.S. reneging on its steadfast commitment to global stability, fostering the strengthening of international laws to guide transnational trade, immigration, and other critical issues of global scale.
The world is faced with the daunting task of scrambling for a new order, as a matter of urgency, to facilitate global governance, justice, security, and ethics. However, the deeply fragmented nature of today’s world in terms of ideology makes considering a ‘polycentric system’ a precarious and potentially destabilising prospect. The potential polycentric hegemonies – China, Russia, and, to some extent, India – have a very low perspective of global existential threats of climate change, misuse of technology and nukes. The European Union is also seeing significant growth in far-right movements that do not favour inclusion and diversity. These developments put the world in a difficult situation, and a quick solution would be a significant relief.
Recently, Prof. Hiroshi Nakanishi, in his publication in the Mainichi Tabloid, outlined four succinct concentric factors that have shaped President Trump’s worldview. The first consideration revolves around the notion of “America First,” where the values of President Trump take precedence over all others, including the rejection of diversity, equity, and inclusion. The second orbit examines Washington’s desire to solidify its dominance in North America by annexing Canada, Panama and Iceland. The third orbit involves weakening Eurasian allies by leveraging NATO and employing tariffs to coerce them to “deal.” Finally, the deliberate attempt to dismantle all multilateral institutions purposely established to preserve and maintain humanity and the climate. President Trump is employing various measures to achieve these objectives, and the international community cannot afford to ignore him.
For this piece, the remit explores some perspectives on Trumpism, including the likely wins and losses from the raft of actions the President is undertaking. One rather obvious thing is that Trump’s actions could have lasting repercussions on the US’s diplomatic relations with the rest of the world for a long time.
Tariff as a weapon against the rest of the world
President Trump’s stance on tariffs has long been evident to those familiar with his views. In fact, in 1987, Mr. Trump bought a full-page advertisement in The New York Times criticising the global tariff system, emphasising its devastating impact on the U.S. In that advertisement, he particularly complained about Japan’s trade surplus and U.S. military support to wealthy allies. I bet he still held these views after four decades.
So, the Liberation Day announcement of tariffs on over 170 countries was just a manifestation of Trump’s long-held view of reversing economic history. The consequence of this singular action could be far-fetched. It could potentially trip the already fragile global economy into a much severe spasm that will require considerable effort to overcome. Global recession has become much more likely than ever.
The new tariffs, with a base tariff of 10%, came into effect on 5th April 2025. The degree of incidence of the tariffs varies significantly by country. In Africa, Lesotho faces the highest rate of 50%, while countries like Ghana and Sudan have a base rate of 10%. Even key American West allies were not spared as the UK was hit with 10%, the EU at 20%, Japan at 24%, and Canada at 20%. The immediate fallout of the tariff has been a sharp decline across leading stock markets, from Nasdaq to Nikkei, with indices plunging to levels worse than those seen during the pandemic era.
While President Trump’s objective from the tariffs may be partially realised for countries with a high trade balance with the U.S., the long-term effects on the U.S. economy could be significant. The dead weight loss from the tariff will squeeze global growth, increase the living cost worldwide, and drive many into poverty. The tariffs will also impact the American consumer, especially in the immediate term, where substitutes may not be readily available, particularly for essential goods and services. The U.S. economy could face a slowdown, with escalating cost of living for the average American, potentially leading to decreased consumer spending and economic growth. Given the U.S.’s influence in international trade and finance, this could have a ripple effect on the global economy. The potential long-term effects of these tariffs on the entire world are a cause for concern and should not be underestimated.
For Africa, the lack of comparative advantage places the continent at a significant disadvantage and will substantially impact many African economies. Over the past decades, with support from America, Africa has built capacity through the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which guaranteed duty-free access to the American market for some African countries. The AGOA enabled these countries, including Ghana, to increase exports to the US as a way of improving the living conditions of those countries while scaling down on aid. However, many goods exported under AGOA may not be essential, which means a price increase may result in decreased consumption. If this principle holds, Africa should brace itself for a significant squeeze in export revenues, adversely affecting Balance of Payment (BoP) positions.
Curbing/combating Global insurgents
Another area in which President Trump is expected to succeed is restoring global peace. The world today is plagued with raging wars, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the hammering of Gaza by Israel, intra-conflicts in Sudan, Yemen and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), among others. These wars threaten global peace and order and the sovereignty of many of these states.
Thus far, America and its NATO allies have ensured that those who invade other Sovereigns do not go unpunished. They have provided significant support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, albeit the recent inertia on the side of the US. Also, the US has led diplomatic efforts to foster lasting peace in Yemen and other conflict zones. Frankly, today’s world cannot do away with the US in addressing global conflicts. The high technology prowess of America places it in the position of relevance in addressing any global conflict. The strategic enablers, including satellite technology, Patriot air defense battery technology, and effective intelligence gathering, make the US a tough nut to crack. It is estimated that it will take Western countries at least 5 years to build such competencies to match that of the US.
Still, the US spends circa 5% of its GDP on defense, much higher than any other country. The high defense spending places it at a higher readiness level for any conflict combat than any other country. In this regard, Trump’s administration will likely maintain or even strengthen America’s military dominance, which will signify a win for Trump.
Trump’s U.S. domestic actions
Not only is President Trump obliterating global order, but he has also been busy ravaging American Institutions through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by billionaire Elon Musk. Through DOGE, the USAID, VOA, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Department of Education, Department of Defense, Treasury Department, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have either been shut down or had workers rationalised.
The administration’s aggressive immigration policies, including forced deportations and crackdowns on immigrants, have sparked widespread concerns. Even in the face of lawful restraint by American courts, the Administration has remained unyielding in its approach. Students in some academic institutions have been forcefully removed and deported at the administration’s discretion. Countries that resist even unlawful deportations are punished with visa withdrawals. These actions suggest a growing intolerance for dissenting perspectives, raising concerns about the administration’s commitment to upholding democratic values and international cooperation.
On diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), the administration has already dismantled through an executive order barring the federal government from implementing any DEI programme. The move is expected to deprive minority groups of opportunities in various facets of government business as it emphasises shifts to merit. Ethnic minorities will be worse off with the dismantling of DEIs.
The world must brace for more surprises in the next four years of President D. Trump. And I dare say, Francis Fukuyama may have to revise his conclusion in his book… “The End of History and the Last Man”, given the rise of Trumpism and a deliberate attempt to render global order useless.
