Russian air traffic more resilient to pandemic than EMEA peers’
Russian airport traffic has been more resilient to pandemic shocks than that of European airports thanks to a quick recovery of its sizeable domestic travel market, Fitch Ratings says. Air traffic in Russia had recovered to its pre-pandemic levels by September, while the traffic of European Fitch-rated airports is still about 40% lower than in 2019.
The global airport sector was among the worst hit by mobility restrictions during the pandemic. However, the level of resilience and traffic recovery rates differ significantly between countries and airports.
Although the Russian aviation market was affected by restrictive measures at the start of the pandemic, it has been able to recover faster than many other similarly affected European markets, supported by improving domestic traffic that constitutes a large share of total traffic.
The recovery of ex-Russia European air traffic has been slower than we anticipated and lags that of North America and Asia.
Tourist traffic in Russia was diverted to domestic destinations due to restrictions on international travel. Faster growth in domestic air traffic in Russia has offset a fall in international traffic.
For other European countries, domestic air travel typically represents a smaller share of overall traffic compared to other regions due to a high proportion of international travel within Europe, which has been severely affected by mobility restrictions and governments’ uncoordinated policy responses.
The performance during the pandemic of the top four Russian airports (Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo in Moscow and Pulkovo in St Petersburg), which comprised almost 60% of Russian air traffic in 2019, was weaker compared to Russia’s other airports, as initially the four had a higher proportion of international travel.
The top four airports recovered to around 85% of 2019 traffic by October 2021, compared to around 150% for other domestic-focused Russian airports.
There are also differences in performance between the largest Russian airports. Domodedovo was the best performing airport in Moscow, Russia’s largest regional market. Its traffic recovered to 95% of pre-pandemic levels by October.
This was supported by domestic travel, including the ability of Domodedovo’s key air carrier S7 Airlines to gain domestic market share. As a result, Domodedovo’s share in the Moscow regional market increased to 34% by October from 28% pre-pandemic.
The two other airports in the Moscow region are more focused on international travel, which was more lucrative before the pandemic, especially Sheremetyevo, which is a base for Russia’s flagship air carrier Aeroflot.
Furthermore, limited international acceptance of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is slowing the country’s international traffic recovery, affecting Russian airports with higher international exposure.
The review of our European airport portfolio in October 2021 resulted in three rating downgrades and four affirmations, with all the reviewed ratings remaining on Negative Outlook, reflecting ongoing uncertainties and possible structural shifts in the sector.
Our traffic recovery assumptions for the region reflect the possibility of further pandemic waves, including new virus variants, and uncoordinated travel policies that weigh heavily on international travel.
