Seychelles’ Path to Macroeconomic Stability and Resilience
Seychelles—a nation of 115 islands in the Indian Ocean—today enjoys a comparatively high degree of economic stability. Inflation is below 2 percent, real GDP has largely recovered from the pandemic, public debt is on course to reach the government’s target of less than 50 percent of GDP before 2030, and per capita income is the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. But this stands in stark contrast to the country’s fortunes twenty years ago when it faced an economic crisis. What’s behind this turnaround?
From times of crisis
In the mid-2000s, Seychelles faced significant macroeconomic challenges stemming from expansionary fiscal policies and a rigid state-led economy. Large fiscal deficits were driven by high public spending on capital projects, subsidies, transfers to state enterprises and high debt service payments, while government revenues were constrained by significant tax concessions to foreign investors in the growing tourism sector. An expansionary monetary policy within a fixed exchange rate framework and extensive exchange controls led to external imbalances and depletion of foreign reserves. By 2008, gross public debt exceeded 192 percent of GDP and reserves had dwindled to just 2 weeks of import cover. The global financial crisis exacerbated these vulnerabilities, and the crisis came to a head in mid-2008 when the Seychelles authorities missed payments on the nation’s private foreign debt and Standard & Poor’s downgraded Seychelles to selective default.
Changing course
In response to this crisis, the government launched a comprehensive reform program with support from the IMF and other development partners. Key actions included abolishing all exchange restrictions and floating the rupee, consolidating public finances, reforming state enterprises, and abolishing indirect product subsidies in favor of a targeted social safety net. Paris Club creditors agreed to a debt stock reduction. These measures quickly yielded positive outcomes: inflation fell, foreign reserves were restored to over 3 months of import cover, and public debt declined to below 70 percent of GDP within five years. This turnaround rebuilt investor confidence, and the restoration of macroeconomic stability allowed policymakers room to shift from crisis management to macro-structural reforms in support of sustainable growth.
Resilience and commitment tested
The COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a sudden collapse in global tourism, was another tremendous shock. But its years of macroeconomic stability enabled Seychelles to face this new challenge from a position of strength. Confronted with an economic contraction of nearly 12 percent in 2020, the government implemented timely fiscal and monetary measures to support households and businesses, utilized emergency financing from the IMF, and moved quickly to resume tourism. As tourism rebounded in 2021 and 2022, economic growth surged to nearly 13 percent in 2022, helping to regain lost ground. Foreign exchange reserves were maintained above 3 months of import cover, and the exchange rate was allowed to move to facilitate adjustment. Key to managing the effects of the pandemic and the international commodity shock that followed were the fiscal and foreign exchange buffers built up in prior years and a commitment to macro fiscal discipline demonstrated by the government.
Staying on course
Given highly volatile global economic and financial conditions, Seychelles’ hard-won macroeconomic stability will likely be put to the test again. Environmental pressures limit scope to expand tourism, while vulnerability to external shocks argues for continued strong fiscal discipline and external buffers. To ensure continued economic growth and resilience, vital investments in infrastructure will be necessary, together with deeper development of human capital, more efficient public services, and financial sector deepening and inclusion. Concerted efforts are also needed to strengthen the social safety net and address critical social ills that hamper productivity and economic development. Some of these areas fall within the reform agenda under the current IMF-supported Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, but others will require new policy commitments.
Seychelles’ economic record highlights the importance of sound macroeconomic management and institutional strengthening in achieving and sustaining economic prosperity. Its journey offers valuable lessons for other small economies aiming at building resilience in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
