Fitch Projects Further Drop in Ghana’s Inflation to 18.8% in 2025, 15.2% in 2026
Inflation in Ghana is projected to decline from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, Fitch Solutions has indicated in its latest macroeconomic outlook.
According to the UK-based firm, the moderation in inflation will be driven by an expected fall in global oil prices, which will enable the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) to limit hikes in retail fuel prices or potentially reduce them, easing cost pressures on households.
“Household consumption will remain the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters as inflationary pressures ease,” Fitch noted. “We forecast that inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, supported by lower global oil prices that will enable Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority to contain increases in, or even reduce, retail pump prices.”
The firm further added that improved global supply of key food items such as rice and wheat will help drive down food prices locally, while high gold prices are expected to strengthen the Bank of Ghana’s reserves. This, it said, will enhance cedi stability and limit imported inflation.
“These factors will ease pressure on household budgets, underpinning our projection that private consumption will grow by 4.0% and contribute 3.2 percentage points to headline economic growth in 2025,” Fitch stated.
2026 Outlook: Inflation to Average 15.2%
Looking ahead to 2026, Fitch Solutions forecasts a further easing of inflation to an average of 15.2%. This, it said, will continue to support consumer activity and private consumption growth.
The report also noted that the conclusion of Ghana’s three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May 2026 could signal a shift toward a looser fiscal policy stance, which has historically boosted domestic demand.
“Following the conclusion of the previous IMF programme in 2019, the budget deficit widened to 4.1% of GDP, from 3.4% in 2018, contributing to an increase in total domestic demand growth from 5.7% to 7.3%,” the report highlighted.
With inflation set to ease and consumption expected to rebound, Fitch maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ghana’s economic recovery over the medium term.
