S&P Warns Ghana’s Credit Rating Could Slip if Reforms Slow Over the Next 12-18 Months
S&P Global Ratings has indicated that Ghana’s sovereign credit rating could face downward pressure over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal reform momentum weakens or external conditions deteriorate.
In its latest assessment, the ratings agency noted that a slowdown in fiscal consolidation resulting in wider deficits or rising debt service costs, could undermine government’s ability to refinance maturing obligations.
“It could lower our rating on Ghana over the next 12-18 months if fiscal reform momentum stalled, materially raising fiscal deficits or debt service costs, while straining the government’s ability to refinance maturing debt as it comes due,” S&P stated.
The agency further warned that vulnerabilities in the external sector, including a deterioration in terms of trade or a decline in export volumes, could also weigh on Ghana’s credit profile.
Additionally, S&P flagged risks related to the country’s ongoing debt restructuring process, noting that potential disagreements among creditors under the G20 Common Framework could delay completion.
“Although not our base case, we could also consider a negative rating action if the remaining part of debt restructuring stalls,” it added, citing possible disputes over comparability of treatment among creditor groups.
On the upside, S&P indicated that sustained fiscal discipline and stronger external buffers could support a rating upgrade within the same 12 to 18-month horizon.
“It could raise the rating in the next 12-18 months if Ghana maintained low fiscal deficits, reducing debt service costs and strengthening its access to foreign financing, while its external position continued to strengthen, including via the accumulation of additional foreign currency reserves,” the agency noted.
The assessment highlights the delicate balance between Ghana’s ongoing macroeconomic recovery efforts and the risks that could influence its creditworthiness in the near term.
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at ‘B-/B’, maintaining a stable outlook as the country nears the completion of its debt restructuring programme. The ratings agency also affirmed Ghana’s ‘B-’ transfer and convertibility assessment.
According to S&P, the stable outlook reflects a balance between improving external and fiscal metrics driven by ongoing reforms, and persistent vulnerabilities including high debt service costs, exposure to commodity price shocks, and risks around reform implementation.
Ghana is close to completing its comprehensive debt restructuring process following its 2022 default, having successfully restructured domestic debt in 2023 and $13.1 billion in Eurobonds in October 2024. The government has either completed or reached agreements in principle on about 97% of the targeted debt.
S&P noted that recent progress in negotiations with key creditors, including the African Export-Import Bank and holders of Saderea commercial notes, has helped advance the restructuring process after earlier delays linked to creditor disagreements.
The ratings affirmation comes amid strengthening external sector performance, supported largely by elevated gold prices. Ghana recorded a current account surplus of $9.35 billion, equivalent to 8.1% of GDP in 2025, alongside a rise in gross international reserves to a record $14.5 billion.
