S&P Assigns Inaugural Rating of B+ With Stable Outlook to Guinea
The international financial rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has assigned the Republic of Guinea an inaugural rating of “B+” with a “Stable” outlook. This decision reflects the strength of the country’s economic fundamentals, strong growth prospects driven by the integrated mining and infrastructure Simandou project, and the rigor in public financial management. It places Guinea above the continental average and makes it the third-best-rated economy in West Africa. This rating is also an essential prerequisite for the implementation of the Simandou 2040 Program, as it facilitates Guinea’s access to international financing.
“The attribution of the B+ rating marks a new beginning for Guinea. It demonstrates that our reforms are bearing fruit and that the Guinean State is now a reliable partner and an emerging destination for international investors,” stated Mr. Djiba Diakité, Minister, Chief of Staff to the President of the Republic, and Chairman of the Simandou Strategic Committee.
The S&P report highlights particularly dynamic growth prospects, based notably on the performance of the mining sector. Guinea is already among the world leaders in bauxite (world #1) and gold, and is preparing to occupy a leading position in iron ore with the imminent launch of the Simandou project, expected to become the world’s largest iron mine. This deposit stands out for its high-grade ore (65%), which is set to contribute to the decarbonization of global industry and the world economy. According to S&P, between 2026 and 2028, Guinea could experience GDP growth of nearly 10% per year, far exceeding the regional average.
S&P also emphasized the structural transformation efforts undertaken by the Guinean authorities. The agency commends the priority given to local value addition and underlines that infrastructure investments linked to Simandou will generate positive spillovers across the entire economy. This integrated approach, formalized within the framework of the Simandou 2040 Socio-Economic Program, reflects, in its view, the authorities’ determination to diversify the economy, modernize institutions, promote local content, and strengthen human capital, notably through the “Simandou Academy” initiative.
On the fiscal front, S&P positively notes the country’s demonstrated budgetary discipline. The public deficit is projected to remain below 3% of GDP over the 2025-2028 period, supported by higher revenues and the digitalization of the tax administration. Public debt, which stood at 44% of GDP in December 2024, benefits from a favorable structure with long maturities and controlled rates. Inflation has sharply declined, falling from 11% (2020–2022) to around 3.5% currently. S&P also highlights Guinea’s strong international partnerships, both with multilateral donors and the private sector. Ongoing discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new program are seen as a factor of stability and confidence.
Furthermore, Guinea has recently completed a GDP rebasing exercise. This work, led by the National Institute of Statistics with the support, among others, of AFRISTAT, the IMF, the World Bank, and the African Development Bank, allows for better accounting of previously under- or unmeasured sectors. Nominal GDP was revised upward by about 50%, to USD 36.3 billion in 2024, making Guinea the second-largest economy in Francophone West Africa1, with a revised lower debt ratio (30.5% in December 2024). These rebased GDP statistics will be integrated by S&P in their analyses as of their next rating review.
“The Guinean State welcomes this inaugural rating, which constitutes a decisive milestone in the rollout of the Simandou 2040 program. This rebasing also provides us with a solid foundation to better plan, better invest, and enhance Guinea’s attractiveness to investors. These elements will enable the Republic of Guinea to mobilize the international financing needed to carry out its strategic projects and thereby accelerate the country’s economic transformation for the benefit of the entire population,” declared Mr. Djiba Diakité.
