World Bank Forecasts 7% Decline in Global Food Prices in 2025 as Rice Prices Plunge
Global food prices are expected to fall for a second consecutive year in 2025, led by a sharp drop in rice prices, as ample global supplies and easing export restrictions weigh on the market.
According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the institution’s food price index is projected to decline by 7% year-on-year in 2025, with all three of its major sub-indices—grains, oils and meals, and other foods—forecast to fall.
Grain prices are expected to post the steepest drop, sliding 11%, largely due to an anticipated 29% fall in rice prices. This downturn reflects robust global production and a loosening of India’s export curbs. India, which accounts for roughly 40% of global rice exports, is forecast to increase output by 5% in the 2024-25 season. Global rice production is expected to rise by 2%.
Despite the near-term softness, rice prices are projected to remain broadly stable in 2026, as supply and demand are likely to increase in tandem, according to preliminary estimates from the International Grains Council.
Wheat prices are also expected to trend lower through 2026, weighed down by trade-related demand concerns. However, the decline will be partially cushioned by tighter supply conditions. The World Bank noted that while global wheat production is near record highs, it is expected to fall just short of consumption, leading to a drawdown in inventories.
Maize prices, meanwhile, are forecast to ease by 2% in both 2025 and 2026. Lower crude oil prices—dampening demand for ethanol—and rising tariffs on U.S.-China trade are expected to weigh on maize demand. Additionally, a pricing advantage over wheat and soybeans is likely to encourage farmers to expand maize cultivation, further pressuring prices. Even so, the decline is likely to be limited by historically tight stock levels, which are projected to hit their lowest point in over a decade.
The World Bank expects all sub-components of its food index to stabilise in 2026, following the projected declines in 2025.
