World Bank Projects $64 Average Oil Price for 2025 Amid Weaker Global Growth Outlook
The World Bank has projected an average crude oil price of $64 per barrel for 2025, signalling a notable decline from the estimated $80.70 per barrel recorded in 2024.
According to the Bretton Woods institution’s April 2025 edition of the Commodity Markets Outlook, the continued downturn in oil prices is expected to deepen further in 2026, with an average price of $60 per barrel forecasted.
The anticipated drop in prices, should macroeconomic conditions remain stable and exchange rates hold steady, could see domestic petroleum product prices remain flat at retail pumps, offering some relief to consumers.
Oil prices fell sharply in early April 2025 to below $63 per barrel—marking the lowest level since April 2021—amid heightened concerns over global economic growth.
The downward trajectory, the report notes, was triggered by the United States’ imposition of significant trade tariffs on April 2, 2025. The announcement caused a $12 per barrel plunge in just four trading days, ranking as the 11th-worst four-day performance since 1990.
Despite a brief rally in early March 2025 that saw Brent crude rebound to $70 per barrel, the broader dynamics in the market only managed to yield a marginal $1 increase in Q1 2025, partially offsetting the $5 per barrel decline recorded in the final quarter of 2024.
Oil Demand Dynamics
On the demand side, global oil consumption rose by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 1.2%, in the first quarter of 2025. This was slightly higher than the 1.1% growth recorded in Q4 2024.
China’s oil demand grew by 0.2 mb/d (1.4%) in Q1 2025, up from 1.0% in the previous quarter. Advanced economies also witnessed a modest recovery, with demand increasing by 0.4 mb/d (0.9%), compared to a 0.3% rise in the prior period.
For the entirety of 2024, however, oil consumption growth slowed in China, Europe and Central Asia (ECA), and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Conversely, demand accelerated in East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and South Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa saw a contraction in oil consumption during the period, while demand remained flat across advanced economies.
China’s slower oil demand growth in 2024 has been attributed in part to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). According to the report, over 40% of new vehicles sold in China in 2024 were electric, resulting in an estimated oil demand reduction of 0.45 mb/d.
