Deloitte Tips BoG to Resume Rate Cuts as Inflation Eases Ahead of 125th MPC Meeting
Deloitte has projected that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will resume its monetary policy easing cycle at the upcoming 125th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press briefing scheduled for July 30, 2025, citing a sustained decline in inflation and stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.
According to the firm’s June 2025 West Africa Inflation Bulletin, the disinflation trend — backed by an appreciating cedi and improved agricultural output — provides the necessary conditions for a possible rate cut.
“The expectation is that the BoG is more likely to resume its interest rate cuts. This is because inflationary trajectory has been sustained and backed by stronger fundamentals,” Deloitte stated.
The Central Bank last adjusted its benchmark interest rate in March 2025, raising it by 100 basis points to 28%. It subsequently held the rate steady at its May MPC meeting, maintaining a cautious stance despite early signs of easing inflation.
However, recent inflation figures have strengthened the case for monetary loosening. Headline inflation dropped markedly to 13.7% in June from 18.4% in May. Month-on-month inflation registered a negative 1.2%, marking the first monthly deflation since August 2024.
Both food and core inflation rates also declined significantly to 16.3% and 11.4% respectively, with their monthly indices also reflecting downward movement. The disinflation was largely driven by declining imported inflation, attributed to the strengthening of the Ghana cedi.
The local currency has appreciated considerably in recent months, enhancing external price stability and easing the cost of imported goods. Government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural productivity have also contributed to increased food supply, further dampening inflationary pressures.
At the regional level, the Upper West region continued to record the highest inflation rate at 32.3%, while Bono East replaced Ahafo as the region with the lowest rate, at 8.4%.
Should the BoG proceed with a rate cut, it would mark the first monetary policy easing since the tightening cycle began in late 2021. Market participants will be closely watching the July 30 announcement for signals of a new policy direction, especially as the economy continues its path toward recovery under the IMF-supported programme.
