Ghana Slashes Cocoa Harvest Forecast for the Second Time Amid Adverse Weather Conditions
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, has cut its cocoa harvest forecast for the ongoing season by 5%, citing hotter-than-expected weather and insufficient rainfall. This is the second downward revision for the season, which began in September.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the revised outlook suggests a harvest of approximately 617,500 tons. In August, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) had already reduced its initial estimate by 20%, from 812,500 tons to 650,000 tons.
The downward adjustment comes on the heels of severe weather conditions, including the seasonal Harmattan winds that typically occur from December to February. These hot, dry winds have exacerbated the challenges faced by cocoa farmers, significantly impacting yields.
Price Rally Intensifies
The supply concerns have further fueled a cocoa price rally, with futures in New York climbing as much as 2.1% on Friday. Prices are on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain and have risen over 7% this week alone. Cocoa futures have flirted with a record high of $13,000 per ton, driven by low trading activity and limited global stockpiles.
West Africa’s weak harvests have already led to a third straight global cocoa supply deficit. Adverse weather patterns in the region are reducing the likelihood of replenishing stocks, adding pressure on chocolatiers and consumers alike.
Meteorological Warnings
The Ghana Meteorological Agency has forecasted more intense heat waves over the next year. “We are experiencing an unusual increase in temperatures, and it is important for the public to take the necessary precautions to stay healthy and hydrated,” said Joshua Asamoah, a senior meteorologist.
Despite the current challenges, Ghana’s cocoa harvest in the 2024-25 season is projected to exceed last season’s output of 480,000 tons, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
As of now, COCOBOD has not issued any official statement regarding the recent revision.
