- Ghana’s Macro Stability Must Now Translate into Jobs and Livelihoods – Nicholas Gbana
Ghana has built enough macroeconomic resilience to withstand temporary inflationary pressures, but the government must now accelerate the implementation of key development programmes if recent stability is to translate into jobs, business growth and improved living standards, Development Economist and Chartered Accountant Mr Nicholas Issaka Gbana has said.
Speaking during a NorvanReports and Economic Governance Platform X Space discussion on Ghana’s inflation outlook and the strength of the ongoing economic recovery, Mr Gbana said the economy remains broadly on course but warned that prolonged inflationary pressures could weaken the gains made over the past year.
“Our recovery is strong enough to withstand temporary pressures, but not sustained inflation over several months,” he said.
His comments come as Ghana’s inflation has begun rising again after months of sharp decline, reopening debate over the strength of the recovery and the policy choices facing the government and the Bank of Ghana.
Mr Gbana said the country’s improving macroeconomic indicators show that the economy has regained some capacity to absorb shocks, but he cautioned against complacency. According to him, the real test is whether the recovery can be sustained long enough to benefit households and businesses beyond the headline numbers.
He identified food prices, transport costs, energy prices and rent as the four major inflation components policymakers should monitor closely over the coming months.
These areas, he noted, have direct implications for household welfare and business operating costs. Food prices affect daily living standards, transport costs influence market prices across the economy, energy prices shape production and logistics costs, while rent remains a major pressure point for urban households and small businesses.
Mr Gbana said favourable weather conditions could help keep food inflation under control if agricultural production remains strong. However, he warned that Ghana remains vulnerable to imported inflation, especially from geopolitical tensions and higher global oil prices.
“If agricultural production remains strong and the conflict in the Middle East does not worsen, Ghana should remain in a relatively good position,” he said.
The warning reflects the delicate nature of Ghana’s recovery. Although domestic inflation has fallen significantly from previous highs, external shocks remain a major risk. A rise in global crude oil prices could quickly affect domestic fuel prices, transport fares, food distribution costs and broader inflation expectations.
For a country still heavily dependent on imported fuel and exposed to external commodity market movements, the inflation outlook cannot be judged only by current domestic indicators. It must also account for global risks that Ghana cannot fully control.
On fiscal policy, Mr Gbana commended the government’s commitment to expenditure discipline, saying the restraint has helped restore confidence and stabilise the macroeconomic environment. But he cautioned that spending restraint must not become an obstacle to the execution of critical development programmes.
He observed that several ministries, departments and agencies continue to face delays in budget releases, affecting their ability to implement projects and support economic activity.
“Government is still the single largest buyer in the economy. If government spending slows significantly, it naturally affects overall growth,” he said.
That point goes to the centre of Ghana’s current policy dilemma. Fiscal discipline is necessary to sustain investor confidence, manage debt and avoid renewed inflationary pressure. But if government spending slows too sharply, especially in productive sectors, the recovery could become weaker at the level of jobs, incomes and business activity.
Mr Gbana said the next phase of economic management must therefore focus on balancing fiscal restraint with targeted investment in areas that can stimulate production, employment and private-sector growth.
According to him, stronger implementation of flagship programmes in infrastructure, agriculture, energy and industrial development will determine whether macroeconomic stability ultimately benefits ordinary Ghanaians.
“What I want to see now is much more vigorous implementation across agriculture, infrastructure, energy and the productive sectors,” he said.
His comments suggest that Ghana’s recovery debate is shifting from stabilisation to execution.
The country has made progress in reducing inflation, improving exchange-rate stability and restoring some level of policy credibility. But those gains will remain incomplete if they do not generate jobs, improve productivity and create stronger demand across the real economy.
For businesses, the concern is not only whether inflation is falling or whether fiscal targets are being met. Businesses also want predictable public investment, faster project execution, stronger infrastructure delivery, reliable energy supply and policies that support production.
For households, the recovery will be judged by whether food prices stabilise, transport costs remain manageable, rents become less burdensome, and job opportunities improve.
Mr Gbana said the government must therefore ensure that fiscal discipline does not mean underfunding the very programmes required to drive economic transformation.
This is particularly important because many sectors of the Ghanaian economy still depend heavily on government expenditure. Contractors, suppliers, consultants, agribusiness operators, infrastructure firms and service providers often rely on public-sector spending to sustain activity. When government payment cycles slow or project releases are delayed, the impact can ripple through the private sector.
At the same time, loosening expenditure too quickly could undermine the same stability the government is trying to protect. That is why Mr Gbana argued for coordination between fiscal discipline and growth-supporting investment.
He said policymakers may eventually need to carefully balance expenditure restraint with strategic investments that stimulate employment and private-sector activity.
The challenge is not simply whether government should spend more or spend less. The real issue is whether government is spending on the right things, at the right time, and with enough efficiency to produce measurable economic results.
Responding to questions on policy options for easing the cost of living, Mr Gbana said there is no single solution. He argued that government interventions must be tailored to the source of each inflationary shock.
“It depends entirely on where the pressure comes from. Different inflation drivers require different policy responses,” he said.
That view is important because inflation does not always come from the same source. If food inflation rises because of poor harvests, the solution may involve irrigation, storage, transport and supply-chain interventions. If fuel prices rise because of global oil shocks, the response may involve energy pricing, transport policy or targeted relief. If rent pressures dominate, housing supply and urban planning become more relevant.
A uniform policy response may therefore fail if it does not address the specific driver of price pressure.
Mr Gbana’s broader message was that Ghana must protect the recovery but also make it more meaningful.
Macroeconomic stability is necessary, but it is not the final objective. Lower inflation, fiscal discipline and exchange-rate stability must become the foundation for productive investment, job creation and higher living standards.
The NorvanReports and Economic Governance Platform discussion examined whether Ghana’s economic recovery is strong enough to withstand fresh price pressures as inflation begins to rise again.
For Mr Gbana, the answer is cautiously positive. The recovery can withstand temporary shocks, but only if inflation does not persist and government maintains discipline while accelerating the right development programmes.
His position places implementation at the centre of Ghana’s next economic test.
The country has made progress in stabilising the economy. The harder task now is to turn that stability into growth that people can feel.
