Afreximbank Sees Ghana’s Inflation Averaging 9.9% in 2026

The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is projecting Ghana’s inflation to average 9.9 per cent in 2026, even as it notes a gradual stabilisation in the country’s macroeconomic conditions.

The forecast comes despite Ghana’s recent sharp disinflation, with headline inflation easing to 3.8 per cent in January 2026 — the lowest level recorded in nearly 27 years.

In its January 2026 review of Africa’s macroeconomic landscape, Afreximbank places Ghana within a stable risk bracket, citing gains from fiscal consolidation measures and ongoing structural reforms.

The report also identifies the Ghana cedi as one of the continent’s best-performing currencies. According to the Bank’s latest exchange rate assessment, the cedi appreciated by 27.4 per cent year-on-year against the US dollar, positioning it among Africa’s top gainers.

In broader emerging market comparisons, the cedi ranks among the leading high-yielding currencies year-to-date, supported by a tight monetary policy stance and improving external sector conditions.

However, Afreximbank cautions that exchange rate trends across the continent remain uneven, with several African economies continuing to grapple with currency depreciation pressures driven by external imbalances and limited foreign reserve buffers.

At the continental level, Africa’s economy is projected to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, marginally up from 4.2 per cent in 2025. The expected expansion is underpinned by moderating inflation, enhanced policy coordination and a rebound in investment flows.

Nonetheless, the report highlights that Africa’s average debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated at approximately 72 per cent, signalling persistent fiscal fragilities.

For Ghana, the outlook points to sustained price stability and currency resilience, albeit within a broader African context characterised by debt challenges and an uneven recovery trajectory.