Airfares Could Rise By 22% Due To Climate Change Challenges
Passengers could be the ones picking up the tab as airlines invest in green technologies.
Climate change and carbon emissions are a major concern for every industry in the world, including aviation. Thanks to constant developments and huge investments in research and technology throughout the years, the aviation industry has stabilized its share of global aviation Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions between two and three percent.
Despite such low percentages, the aviation industry continues to work towards reducing its carbon emissions because it is a growing industry. Every year the number of passengers carried increases, airlines increase their fleet size, and new airlines are formed to serve a specific region or market.
Net zero by the year 2050
In 2021, during the 77th annual IATA General Meeting in Boston, USA, member airlines pledged to bring their net carbon emissions to zero by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement’s objectives to limit global warming. With a total of 4.5 billion passengers carried in 2019 projected to grow to 10 billion passengers in 2050, drastic action is required by the airlines to achieve the net zero goal.
The International Council on Clean Transportation forecasts the decarbonizing of aviation could cost as much as $1 trillion; to compensate for this investment, it predicts that airfares could rise by as much as 22% by 2050.
SAF and carbon offsets
IATA has outlined four strategies and their contribution to the net zero cause for airlines to follow. The most significant strategy is the increased use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) which accounts for 65% of the solution. Tests performed using 100% unblended SAF on both engines indicated that the carbon emissions can be reduced by up to 80%.
Whilst SAF is compatible with existing infrastructure, it accounts for less than 0.1% of the total jet fuel currently used. The biggest hurdle faced is the massive production costs and limited supplies. It is predicted that SAF production will increase and become more available by the next decade, thus making it available for more airlines to use SAF regularly in their operations.
In the meantime, airlines can offset portions of their emissions by financing carbon saving initiatives elsewhere. However, the costs of carbon offsetting and sourcing SAF, according to Willie Walsh (Director General of IATA), would increase passenger airfares.
Hydrogen technology
New technology which will use liquid hydrogen is another strategy, according to IATA, which could contribute a further 13% towards the net-zero goal. Considering the time it takes to create, test, and certify new technologies in aviation, manufacturers around the world have already started designing and testing new ideas.
Whilst the technology being tested would be primitive in terms of aircraft range for long-haul flights, it holds much promise for short-haul and regional flights. Research data indicates that short-haul flights covering less than 600 miles account for 17% of total airline emissions, and flights covering less than 2,500 miles emit more than half of all CO2 emissions from aviation.
By powering these flights with liquid hydrogen, a considerable amount of emissions can be reduced. Airbus, in 2020, revealed three aircraft concepts (ZEROe), which could be powered by liquid hydrogen with a possible entry into service as soon as 2035. The potential aircraft are designed to revolutionize the short-haul and regional markets with seating capacities ranging from 120 to 200 passengers, along with operational ranges varying between 1,000 to 2,000 nautical miles.
However, there are some challenges to overcome, namely the infrastructure and resources to mass produce liquid hydrogen fuel and its storage. These facilities may not be available worldwide due to the investment required, but for this initiative to be effective and reduce carbon emissions in the aviation industry, it has to be embraced across the board by every nation and every airline.
Emphasizing this, IATA states that success requires coordination of the entire industry and significant government support.
Infrastructure and operational efficiencies
This IATA strategy, being the smallest of the four, accounts for the final 3% of the net-zero solution. However, it is an important aspect because this is something airlines and manufacturers have begun implementing already, producing positive results.
Manufacturers such as Airbus have already chosen a French-Japanese electric motor developer for a suitable hydrogen engine prototype, and they have begun modifying the testbed to try it out on: the Airbus A380. The first Airbus A380 ever built (MSN 001) is currently being modified for hydrogen engine testing and is on schedule for the first test flight in 2026.
Airlines, on the other hand, are doing their part by making their operations efficient. German carrier Lufthansa, during the height of the pandemic, tested a new, efficient method of performing approaches to airports, wherein the aircraft begins its approach from over 200 miles away with a clearance to descend continuously until reaching the initial approach fix for landing.
This method cancels out the need for the aircraft to repeatedly settle at different flight levels during the approach, shifting engine power between descent and cruise configuration. After a two-month trial, Lufthansa recorded CO2 emission savings of 2,000 tonnes.
South American carrier LATAM is another airline that teamed up with Airbus to enable over 200 of the carrier’s Airbus A320 family aircraft to perform continuous descents. By doing so, the airline saves up to 100 tonnes of fuel per aircraft per year, which in turn reduces up to 300 tonnes of CO2 emissions per plane. Overall, the carrier would save the equivalent of 60,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions every year.
Conclusion
By analyzing current trends, the investment required by the entire aviation industry is massive, and it will affect ticket prices in the future, as suggested by the International Council on Clean Transportation. However, there are airlines worldwide doing their part by making their everyday operations more efficient and thus reducing the costs for both the airline and the passengers.
Furthermore, it will take time for the new technologies and infrastructure to become accepted across the entire industry, but once it becomes consistent, the world of aviation can continue thriving without harming the planet.
Source: McKinsey & Company