Banks Must Brace for New Risks as Ghana Exits IMF Programme in 2026, GAB Says
The Ghana Association of Banks (GAB) has urged lenders to prepare for emerging risks as Ghana is set to exit the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme in August 2026.
According to the Association, the withdrawal of external programme support could expose banks to fresh pressures, even as macroeconomic conditions continue to improve.
In its outlook for the sector, GAB noted that recent stabilisation efforts have strengthened confidence and created room for credit expansion. However, it cautioned that banks will operate in a potentially more volatile environment once IMF programme support ends.
Key risks identified include possible swings in global interest rates, the threat of capital flow reversals and renewed currency pressures, all of which could tighten liquidity conditions and raise funding costs across the banking system.
The Association stressed that such external shocks could place significant strain on banks’ balance sheets if they are not proactively managed.
To mitigate these risks, GAB is urging banks to further strengthen their risk management frameworks, maintain prudent credit underwriting standards and diversify their loan portfolios, particularly towards infrastructure financing and other high-growth sectors of the economy.
According to the Association, a disciplined and forward-looking approach will be critical to safeguarding financial stability and ensuring that the banking sector emerges stronger in Ghana’s post-ECF programme environment.
Meanwhile, GAB is projecting single-digit inflation throughout 2026, supported by continued fiscal discipline as the IMF-supported programme winds down.
The Association said the inflation outlook is underpinned by stronger external reserves, relatively tight monetary conditions and ongoing fiscal consolidation. However, it cautioned that inflationary risks could re-emerge once IMF support comes to an end.
Ghana’s sharp disinflation in 2025, which saw inflation decline to 5.4 percent, points to a strong disinflation phase, driven by tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation and relative exchange rate stability, the Association noted.
Looking ahead, GAB said sustaining low inflation beyond 2026 will depend on anchoring inflation expectations, maintaining fiscal discipline and addressing structural drivers of food inflation and import dependence to prevent a rebound in price pressures.
