BoG Likely to Cut Policy Rate by 150bps to 14% Amid Easing Inflation — IC Research
The Bank of Ghana is expected to further reduce its benchmark policy rate by 150 basis points to 14%, as easing inflation creates room for monetary policy loosening, according to IC Research.
IC Research estimates that the real policy rate currently stands at 12.2%, reflecting recent disinflation and a nominal policy rate of 15.5%.
While this suggests significant room for aggressive rate cuts, the firm maintains that the central bank is likely to proceed cautiously due to prevailing global uncertainties.
“While this signals vast scope for deeper cut, we believe the MPC will favour caution amidst volatile geopolitical risk events, especially as energy prices surge and the US dollar strengthens,” IC Research noted.
It added that policymakers are expected to maintain a preference for a double-digit real policy rate, albeit with a bias towards easing.
“We thus expect the authorities to sustain the preference for double-digit real policy rate with a rate-cut bias, pegging our anticipated cut in the policy rate at between 100–200 basis points, with a leaning towards a 150bps cut to 14.0%,” the report stated.
The Monetary Policy Committee in January 2026 reduced the policy rate to 15.5% from 18%, in a move aimed at supporting economic recovery and aligning with the disinflation trend.
The Committee at the time cited improved macroeconomic conditions, underpinned by a tight monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and a strong build-up in international reserves.
Inflation has declined faster than expected, with expectations remaining anchored, while economic growth continues to show signs of strengthening factors that reinforce expectations of further policy easing in the near term.
