- Brent Crude Forecast Raised to US$87 as Fitch Warns of Growth Risks
Fitch Ratings has raised its 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to US$87 per barrel, warning that rising geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions to global energy supply routes could weigh on global growth.
The revised forecast represents a sharp increase from the agency’s earlier estimate of US$70 per barrel, reflecting renewed pressure in global energy markets and concerns over supply instability.
Fitch said higher oil prices are becoming a significant drag on the global economy, although it stressed that the current shock remains less severe than the oil crises of the 1970s.
According to the agency, real oil prices reached the equivalent of US$170 per barrel during the 1979 energy crisis, when OPEC had far greater control over global supply and oil consumption accounted for a larger share of world economic activity.
“Oil consumption as a share of world GDP has halved since 1980,” Fitch noted, suggesting that major economies are structurally less exposed to oil shocks than they were four decades ago.
Still, the agency cautioned that the outlook remains fragile.
Fitch said geopolitical uncertainty has become elevated enough for it to model a more adverse scenario in which Brent crude averages US$100 per barrel throughout 2026.
Under that scenario, the oil shock would be accompanied by tighter credit conditions and a 10 percent decline in global equity markets.
The impact on growth could be severe.
Fitch projects that under the adverse case, economic growth in the United States could slow to 0.8 percent over the next 12 months, while eurozone growth could weaken to 0.3 percent. China’s growth could also moderate to 3.4 percent.
The warning comes as Brent crude trades near US$94.68 per barrel, amid continued concerns over global supply disruptions and shipping constraints linked to tensions in the Middle East.
For policymakers, the revised forecast complicates an already delicate global economic environment.
Higher oil prices can feed into transport, electricity, production and food costs, delaying disinflation and putting fresh pressure on household budgets.
For central banks, the challenge is even more difficult. A sustained oil shock can raise inflation while simultaneously slowing growth, forcing policymakers to balance price stability against weakening economic activity.
For oil-importing economies, especially those with fragile currencies and limited fiscal space, the impact could be sharper. Higher crude prices can increase fuel import bills, worsen trade balances, raise subsidy pressures and intensify foreign exchange demand.
For African economies, including Ghana, the implications are mixed.
Oil-exporting countries may benefit from improved revenue inflows, but net fuel importers could face higher import costs, renewed inflation pressure and added strain on public finances.
Fitch’s latest projections also add to concerns among investors that sustained energy price volatility could weaken consumer spending, raise corporate input costs and tighten financial conditions across markets.
But the ratings agency said the global economy may still receive some support from stronger investment in technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
According to Fitch, rising demand for advanced semiconductors and information technology products could help cushion some of the broader economic fallout, particularly in export-driven Asian economies.
That means the global slowdown may not be evenly felt. While higher oil prices threaten inflation and growth, technology-led investment could provide some support to trade and manufacturing in selected economies.
The broader message from Fitch, however, is clear: energy markets have again become a central risk to the global outlook.
The current shock may not match the scale of the 1970s oil crisis, but it arrives at a time when many economies are still managing high debt, cautious consumers, tight financing conditions and geopolitical uncertainty.
For Ghana and other import-dependent economies, the lesson is direct. Lower global inflation and improving domestic stability can be quickly tested when oil prices rise sharply.
The key question now is whether Brent crude stabilises closer to Fitch’s new US$87 baseline, or whether geopolitical risks push the market toward the more damaging US$100 scenario.
Either way, the oil market is once again reminding policymakers that growth forecasts can change quickly when energy security becomes uncertain.
