Cameroon’s Growth to Slow to 3.1% in 2025 Amid Election-Related Pressures – IMF
Cameroon’s economy has shown resilience in the face of repeated external shocks, but growth is expected to moderate in the near term, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following its 2026 Article IV Consultation mission to the country.
In a statement issued at the end of the mission, which took place from January 29 to February 12 and was led by Christine Dieterich, the IMF said economic growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2025, down from an estimated 3.5% in 2024. The Fund attributed the deceleration to post-election unrest late in the year, which disrupted trade, services and investment, while weighing on domestic demand.
Inflation, however, continued its downward trend, easing to a 12-month average of 3.4% in December 2025, reflecting moderating price pressures.
The IMF noted a weakening in Cameroon’s external position in 2025, with the current account deficit expected to widen to 3.9% of GDP from 3.3% in 2024, partly due to lower oil exports. Despite this, the country’s contribution to the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) international reserves remained broadly unchanged, supported by external commercial borrowing.
On the fiscal front, preliminary data suggest a deterioration in performance in 2025 amid election-related uncertainty. The overall fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened to about 2.0% of GDP, from 1.5% in 2024. The non-oil primary balance is also estimated to have worsened to around 2.6% of GDP, compared with a budget target of 1.4%, reflecting weaker non-oil revenue mobilisation and continued slippages in current expenditure.
The IMF cautioned that uncertainty around the 2025 fiscal outturn remains high, including risks of additional arrears and extra-budgetary commitments. Near-term financing pressures persist, prompting further external commercial borrowing, while Cameroon’s debt sustainability analysis continues to indicate a high risk of debt distress.
Looking ahead, the IMF described the growth outlook as cautiously favourable. Growth is projected to recover to 3.3% in 2026, supported by higher public investment as uncertainty eases. A stronger rebound is expected in 2027–2028, although this remains contingent on the timely completion of key infrastructure projects, particularly in electricity transmission. Over the medium term, growth is projected to reach 4.6% by 2031, underpinned by mining sector diversification.
Inflation is forecast to decline further to 2.9% in 2026, in line with regional convergence criteria, and stabilise at around 2.5% over the medium term.
The IMF said it supports the authorities’ intention to tighten fiscal policy in the 2026 budget, which targets a deficit of 1.7% of GDP. However, it warned that risks remain elevated, including weakening regional reserves, tight liquidity conditions, public financial management weaknesses and vulnerabilities in debt markets. External risks include commodity price volatility, higher global interest rates and reduced international aid, alongside ongoing security and climate-related challenges.
The mission commended the authorities for efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability under the IMF-supported programme that concluded in July 2025, but stressed the need to address persistent structural constraints to growth. Key reform priorities include improving access to finance, strengthening investment planning and execution, expanding concessional financing for infrastructure, boosting non-oil revenue mobilisation, operationalising the Single Treasury Account and deepening the regional treasury market.
The IMF also underscored the importance of stronger public financial management, particularly in commitment controls and avoiding off-budget spending, as well as the implementation of a realistic timetable to clear government arrears.
In addition, the mission called for sustained implementation of recommendations from the 2023 governance diagnostic, notably in asset declaration, audit and anti-corruption frameworks.
The IMF Executive Board is expected to consider the staff report on Cameroon’s 2026 Article IV Consultation in late March.
