Cedi Projected to End Year Around GH¢12.85
Databank Research has projected that the cedi is likely to remain relatively stable throughout 2026, with a forecasted year-end depreciation of about 7.20 per cent against the US dollar.
In its 2026 Economic Outlook, the firm estimates that the cedi could close the year around GH¢12.85 to the dollar, assuming there are no major systemic shocks.
The projection accounts for anticipated pressures from bulk importers, energy-related expenditures, and Eurobond repayments. It is built on a cautious assumption of monthly gold-backed inflows of approximately GH¢750 million from the Ghana Gold Board (GOLDBOD), alongside ongoing reforms in the small-scale mining sector.
According to the report, consistent gold inflows are expected to strengthen the Bank of Ghana’s capacity to manage market expectations and reduce fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
The outlook also reflects positive external sentiment, supported by continued programme assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Databank Research further notes a gradual shift in global reserve management strategies, with some central banks decreasing reliance on the US dollar and increasing their gold holdings. China is highlighted as a leading participant in this trend amid uncertainties surrounding US policy decisions.
The report mentions ongoing discussions about reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status, which would allow it to be used as eligible collateral in repo financing. If implemented, this could represent a structural evolution in the global financial system.
While deliberations within the BRICS grouping remain cautious due to concerns over volatility, custody, and trust, such a shift could enhance gold’s monetary function, reduce dependence on the dollar, and indirectly support cedi stability through stronger reserve accumulation.
Excluding this low-probability structural change, Databank Research maintains a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, underpinned by tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserve buffers considered sufficient to manage moderate demand pressures.
