Consumer Price Index Projected to Fall Sharply to 6.5% by End-November
Headline inflation (consumer price index) is projected to decline sharply to 6.5% in November 2025, from 8.0% recorded in October, according to analysis by IC Research.
The firm attributes the anticipated drop to a strong favourable base effect and the recent appreciation of the Ghana cedi, which has eased price pressures across key consumer categories.
“A strong, favourable base effect and recent cedi appreciation will likely drag inflation towards the BoG’s [Bank of Ghana] lower target. We expect headline inflation to drop sharply to 6.5% in November 2025 (-150 basis points month-on-month), reflecting a favourable base effect and the cedi’s sharp appreciation, which has reversed recent fuel price pressures,” IC Research stated.
In its review of October 2025 inflation data, IC Research noted that Ghana’s disinflation trend has remained largely intact since December 2024, though intermittent fluctuations have occurred in the second half of 2025 due to alternating deflation and inflation pressures.
“We believe the month-on-month deflation in June [2025] and October [2025] reflects the impact of sharp cedi appreciation, while the August [2025] deflation reflects the onset of crop harvest,” the report explained.
The disinflation trend extended for the tenth consecutive month in October, with annual headline inflation settling at 8.0% year-on-year — the lowest since June 2021 (7.8%).
Food inflation eased to 9.5% year-on-year, entering single digits for the first time since July 2021, driven mainly by lower prices of fish, other seafoods, live animals, and ready-made food.
Non-food inflation also recorded a deeper slowdown, declining by 130 basis points to 6.9% year-on-year on the back of broad-based moderation across non-food expenditure categories.
IC Research anticipates that the continued disinflation momentum, combined with a firmer cedi and easing price pressures, could influence the Bank of Ghana to consider a policy rate cut in the coming months.
