- DDEP Bonds Dominate GH¢1.02bn Fixed-Income Trading Despite Market Slowdown
Trading on Ghana’s fixed-income market fell sharply on October 15, but the headline contraction concealed a concentrated repositioning into longer-dated debt-exchange bonds as investors demanded higher yields to hold duration.
Total market turnover declined to GH¢1.02 billion from GH¢2.49 billion on October 14, a 59.01 per cent session-on-session fall. The number of transactions also dropped by 44.46 per cent, from 551 to 306, showing that the decline reflected both smaller aggregate volume and reduced trading frequency.
The session was therefore quieter, but not directionless. Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds remained the market’s centre of gravity, accounting for GH¢706.33 million, or 69.29 per cent of total turnover. Treasury bills contributed GH¢312.61 million, representing 30.67 per cent, while corporate bonds supplied only GH¢440,200. TRADING REPORT FOR GFIM-15102026.xlsx
Activity in every major segment weakened. DDEP bond turnover fell 51.37 per cent from GH¢1.45 billion, while Treasury-bill trading declined 61.34 per cent from GH¢808.60 million. Corporate-bond turnover dropped 70.28 per cent from GH¢1.48 million.
The retreat was even more pronounced in collateralised and short-term corporate activity. Sell-and-buy-back transactions collapsed from GH¢217.83 million to GH¢19,886, while commercial-paper turnover fell from GH¢4.98 million to zero. New government bonds, which recorded GH¢1.77 million on October 14, attracted no trades. Old government bonds also remained inactive. TRADING REPORT FOR GFIM-14102026.xlsx
These movements matter because turnover is not merely a measure of market busyness. It indicates where investors can obtain liquidity and how confidently they can alter positions. A market dominated by a few large transactions can produce an impressive aggregate figure while offering limited depth across the wider yield curve.
That concentration was visible in the DDEP segment. The February 2032 bond carrying a 9.10 per cent coupon recorded GH¢400 million across only two transactions. It alone represented 56.63 per cent of DDEP turnover and 39.24 per cent of the entire market.
The February 2029 bond followed with GH¢165 million, while the February 2031 instrument generated GH¢74.88 million. Together, the three securities accounted for about 90.59 per cent of DDEP turnover. The figures suggest that the day’s liquidity was substantial in selected instruments but thinly distributed.
The dominant 2032 bond closed at a yield of 14.91 per cent, up from its 14.23 per cent opening level, while its closing price settled at 79.08. The 68-basis-point yield increase indicates that the large trade cleared at a deeper discount, consistent with investors requiring more compensation for holding longer maturity exposure.
Similar, though smaller, upward yield adjustments appeared elsewhere. The February 2029 bond closed at 13.98 per cent compared with an opening yield of 13.91 per cent. The February 2031 security moved to 14.24 per cent from 14.20 per cent, while the February 2030 bond edged to 14.23 per cent from 14.22 per cent.
Shorter DDEP securities also showed repricing. The August 2027 bond with a 10 per cent coupon closed at 11 per cent after opening at 10.24 per cent. The February 2028 instrument closed at 12.94 per cent, compared with 12.35 per cent at the start of trading.
Taken together, these changes suggest that buyers remained willing to absorb sizeable DDEP positions, but not without price concessions. Strong volume should therefore not automatically be interpreted as stronger confidence. When yields rise alongside large trades, the market may be revealing a higher required risk premium rather than an unqualified improvement in sentiment.
Treasury bills retained their role as the market’s principal liquidity instrument, although activity was markedly weaker. The most actively traded bill was the instrument maturing on August 2, 2027, which recorded GH¢101.12 million across eight transactions. It accounted for 32.35 per cent of Treasury-bill turnover and almost 10 per cent of total market activity.
The decline in bill turnover does not necessarily mean demand for short-term government paper has weakened structurally. Secondary-market trading can fluctuate with institutional liquidity needs, settlement schedules and the availability of securities. It nevertheless shows that investors executed fewer adjustments in the safest and most liquid portion of the market than they did a day earlier.
Corporate debt activity remained peripheral. The only recorded corporate-bond turnover involved COCOBOD’s August 2028 bond, which traded GH¢440,200 across two transactions and closed at 100.61. On October 14, corporate activity had reached GH¢1.48 million across six trades, including both August 2027 and August 2028 COCOBOD bonds.
The disappearance of commercial-paper trades and the narrow corporate-bond activity underline a continuing structural weakness: Ghana’s fixed-income market remains overwhelmingly dependent on sovereign and sovereign-linked instruments. This limits price discovery for private issuers and reduces the range of tradable assets available to pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors.
The collapse in sell-and-buy-back activity is equally notable. Such transactions can support short-term funding and balance-sheet management. The fall to a single GH¢19,886 trade from more than GH¢217 million signals an unusually sharp reduction in that channel, although one session is insufficient to establish a lasting liquidity trend.
The near-term outlook will depend on whether trading broadens beyond block transactions in selected DDEP bonds. Sustained liquidity requires repeated participation across maturities, not occasional large transfers that dominate the daily total.
Investors will also watch whether the upward repricing in traded DDEP securities persists. Further yield increases could attract buyers seeking higher returns, but they would also imply lower bond prices and continued caution about duration, inflation, fiscal credibility and future funding conditions.
October 15 ultimately presented a market of two stories. Turnover and transaction numbers contracted sharply, confirming a loss of momentum from the previous session. Yet within that quieter market, investors committed hundreds of millions of cedis to longer-dated restructured government debt.
The message is not that demand disappeared. It became selective, concentrated and price-sensitive. But liquidity can cluster around a few securities and require higher yields before changing hands. The next test is whether that interest spreads across the curve or remains dependent on isolated block trades.
