- Fitch Lifts Ghana’s 2026 Current Account Surplus Forecast to 7.8% of GDP
Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Ghana’s current account surplus in 2026 to 7.8% of gross domestic product from 5.2%, as elevated gold prices and stronger export earnings provide the country with an unusually large external buffer despite emerging pressure from weaker cocoa output and higher energy costs.
The research firm expects the surplus to remain sizeable at 5.0% of GDP in 2027, even as it narrows from this year’s projected level. That would remain considerably stronger than Ghana’s average current account deficit of 0.9% of GDP between 2016 and 2025, marking a sharp reversal in the country’s external position.
Fitch expects bullion prices to remain elevated by historical standards even if they moderate next year as global growth strengthens and geopolitical tensions ease. Its commodities team forecasts gold to average about US$4,200 an ounce in 2027, more than twice the US$1,830 average recorded between 2016 and 2025.
The firm expects continued central-bank buying, concerns over global debt sustainability and persistent inflation risks to keep demand for the safe-haven metal relatively strong.
For Ghana, the effect is particularly significant because gold accounts for roughly 40% of merchandise exports. Fitch also expects domestic gold production to increase 3.9% in 2027, allowing higher volumes to reinforce the benefit of historically strong prices.
The external improvement is already visible in official data. The Bank of Ghana reported that the current account surplus widened to US$5.1 billion during the first half of 2026 from US$4.1 billion a year earlier, supported by strong gold and cocoa export receipts and private transfers. The trade surplus rose to US$8.8 billion from US$5.8 billion over the same period.
That performance has helped Ghana rebuild external buffers after a period in which foreign-exchange shortages, debt distress and currency depreciation placed considerable pressure on businesses and households.
A sustained current account surplus means the country is earning more foreign exchange through exports, remittances and other current transactions than it is spending abroad. In principle, that can support reserve accumulation, reduce pressure on the cedi and limit reliance on external borrowing to finance imports.
The strength of Ghana’s current account therefore provides an important counterweight to lingering fiscal and financing vulnerabilities.
But the composition of the surplus also exposes a structural weakness.
Much of the improvement is being driven by exceptionally favourable gold prices rather than a broad-based transformation of Ghana’s export base. That makes the external position sensitive to changes in global commodity markets, particularly if gold prices eventually retreat from current elevated levels.
The cocoa outlook illustrates that vulnerability.
Fitch expects Ghana’s cocoa production to decline 9.1% during the 2026/27 crop season as below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures associated with El Niño disrupt the critical November-to-February pod development period.
Those weather conditions compound longer-standing industry problems, including ageing cocoa trees and the limited financial capacity of smallholder farmers to absorb production shocks or invest in rehabilitation.
Tighter supplies across West Africa may push international cocoa prices higher, but Fitch does not expect those price gains fully to compensate for lower Ghanaian export volumes.
The country forward-sells much of its cocoa crop six to 12 months before shipment, meaning producers and the state do not necessarily capture immediate benefits when spot prices rise sharply.
As a result, Fitch expects Ghana’s merchandise trade surplus to narrow to 9.7% of GDP in 2027 from 12.0% this year, although it would remain substantially above the 2016-2025 average of 3.3%.
Energy costs present another risk.
The Bank of Ghana has noted that rising energy-related imports associated with the Middle East conflict have already increased the country’s import bill. Gross international reserves declined to US$12.9 billion at the end of June from US$13.8 billion at end-December 2025, partly reflecting elevated energy payments.
That means Ghana is currently benefiting from one commodity shock while being exposed to another.
High gold prices are strengthening export receipts and supporting the external account, but elevated crude oil and refined-product costs can simultaneously increase dollar demand and weaken the trade balance.
The balance between those two forces will become increasingly important if global energy prices remain high.
For the cedi, the large current account surplus provides an important buffer. Strong export earnings increase the supply of foreign currency into the economy and can help reduce the mismatch between commercial dollar demand and available inflows.
But the sustainability of that support depends on Ghana converting the current commodity windfall into stronger reserves and a more diversified export base rather than assuming unusually high gold prices will persist indefinitely.
The stronger external position also gives policymakers breathing room as Ghana attempts to transition from post-debt restructuring stabilisation towards investment and private-sector growth.
A more durable current account position would require greater earnings from manufacturing, processed agriculture, services and other non-traditional exports alongside gold.
Fitch’s revised 7.8% forecast therefore represents one of the strongest signals yet of Ghana’s improved external position.
But the projected narrowing to 5.0% in 2027 also provides a warning.
Gold is currently doing much of the heavy lifting. The longer-term test will be whether Ghana can use the resulting foreign-exchange windfall to strengthen reserves and expand productive exports before weaker cocoa production, expensive energy imports or a future correction in bullion prices begin to erode the cushion.
