- Fitch sees El Niño threatens Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire cocoa output as supply risks deepen
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire face renewed cocoa supply risks in the 2026/27 crop season as El Niño-linked weather pressures threaten output in the world’s two largest cocoa-producing countries.
Fitch Solutions is forecasting cocoa production of 1.70 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana for the 2026/27 season, warning that adverse weather conditions could place downward pressure on output across West Africa.
The forecast points to sharper near-term supply pressure in Côte d’Ivoire, where output is expected to decline by 17.50% year-on-year. Ghana’s production, by contrast, is expected to remain broadly flat, suggesting that any recovery in output may be constrained by climate, input and structural farm-level weaknesses.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can disrupt global weather systems, triggering droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and other extreme conditions across different regions.
For cocoa, the risk lies in how these weather shifts affect rainfall patterns, soil moisture, disease pressure and fertiliser effectiveness during critical points in the production cycle.
Fitch Solutions said the dominance of smallholder farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire increases the vulnerability of cocoa supply because many farmers have limited capacity to absorb weather and input shocks.
“We view the dominance of smallholder farmers as another factor increasing supply vulnerability, as smallholders have limited capacity to absorb weather and input shocks. Limited access to irrigation, financing and yield-enhancing technologies leaves production exposed to erratic rainfall,” Fitch Solutions said.
The firm added that drier conditions could reduce fertiliser effectiveness and discourage application, particularly if farmers fear that inputs will be wasted under poor weather conditions.
That concern is being compounded by disruption to fertiliser availability and prices linked to the US-Iran conflict, which could further constrain input usage during the main-crop fertiliser application window around September.
“Reduced fertiliser effectiveness in drier conditions could discourage fertiliser application as farmers seek to avoid input wastage, while existing disruption to fertiliser availability and prices linked to the US-Iran conflict further constrains usage,” Fitch Solutions noted.
The firm said the timing of the fertiliser application window means these pressures could have a more immediate impact on 2026/27 output than previously assumed, adding to near-term downside risks.
Fitch, however, expects the mid-crop harvest to be less exposed to El Niño-induced input pressures because fertiliser applications for the late-2026 mid-crop would have taken place around April 2026.
“We view the mid-crop harvest to be less exposed to El Niño-induced input pressures than the main crop, as fertiliser applications for the late-2026 mid-crop would have taken place around April 2026,” it said.
The warning comes at a sensitive time for the global cocoa market, which has faced prolonged supply tightness due to weak harvests, disease outbreaks, ageing farms, adverse weather and underinvestment in productivity across West Africa.
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire together account for the dominant share of global cocoa supply, meaning any production shock in the two countries can quickly affect international prices, grinder margins, chocolate manufacturers and consumer markets.
For Ghana, the Fitch forecast suggests that the country’s cocoa recovery remains fragile. Output has been weighed down in recent years by swollen shoot disease, illegal mining activities in cocoa-growing areas, ageing trees, smuggling, low farm productivity and financing pressures within the cocoa value chain.
The prospect of flat production at 670,000 tonnes means Ghana may struggle to restore output quickly unless reforms in farm rehabilitation, disease control, input supply and producer financing begin to show stronger results.
The government and cocoa sector authorities have been seeking to stabilise the sector through reforms, including efforts to improve financing for cocoa purchases and support farmers ahead of the new season.
But Fitch’s warning suggests that weather and input risks could blunt the impact of those interventions, especially if farmers are unable to access fertiliser or if dry conditions reduce its effectiveness.
The structural problem is deeper than one weather event. Fitch Solutions said Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire’s existing supply constraints could magnify El Niño-related risks.
“Ageing tree stocks in both markets limit yield potential and increase disease susceptibility, leaving production more exposed to below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures,” the firm said.
It added that drier conditions are likely to weaken tree health and raise pest and disease pressures, increasing the risk of sharper output losses.
That assessment underlines a major challenge for West Africa’s cocoa economy: climate shocks are now interacting with long-standing productivity weaknesses.
Where farms are old, poorly irrigated, under-financed and dependent on smallholder labour, even moderate weather disruptions can produce outsized effects on output.
For farmers, the immediate concern is yield loss and reduced income. For governments, the risk is lower export earnings, weaker foreign exchange inflows and renewed pressure on cocoa-sector financing. For the global market, the risk is continued supply tightness and price volatility.
Ghana’s cocoa sector therefore enters the 2026/27 season with a more difficult outlook than headline production numbers may suggest. A flat output forecast may appear less severe than Côte d’Ivoire’s expected decline, but it still signals limited recovery room after years of pressure on the sector.
The policy lesson is clear. Cocoa resilience can no longer depend only on producer price adjustments or seasonal input distribution. It must include irrigation support, climate-smart agronomy, disease-resistant planting materials, affordable fertiliser, farmer finance, stronger extension services and sustained rehabilitation of ageing farms.
Without that, each weather shock will expose the same structural weaknesses, leaving Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire vulnerable to lower output even when global cocoa prices remain attractive.
The 2026/27 crop season may therefore become another test of whether West Africa’s cocoa giants can move from crisis response to climate-resilient production.
