Fitch Solutions Projects Ghana’s Growth to Remain Robust in 2026 Despite Q3 Slowdown
Fitch Solutions has projected that economic momentum in Ghana will remain robust, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth edging up from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026, despite a moderation in growth during the third quarter of 2025.
Latest data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) show that economic activity softened slightly in the third quarter, with real GDP growth slowing to 5.5% year-on-year, down from 6.5% recorded in the second quarter.
According to Fitch Solutions, the deceleration was driven largely by weaker performance in the industrial sector, where growth slowed sharply to 0.8% in Q3 from 2.3% in Q2. This reflected a deeper contraction in mining and quarrying activity, alongside easing growth in the construction sector.
Growth in the services sector also moderated, slipping to 7.6% in Q3 from 9.6% in the previous quarter, as expansion in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector cooled, despite continued solid gains in domestic trade and transport.
In contrast, the agriculture sector recorded stronger performance, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in Q3 from 7.1% in Q2, supported by robust crop production and buoyant activity in the fishing industry.
Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s economic growth in 2026 to remain firm, underpinned primarily by resilient household demand. The firm projects average annual inflation to ease significantly to 9.7% in 2026, from an estimated 14.6% in 2025.
The anticipated disinflation is expected to be driven by a reduction in the effective Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 21.9% to 20.0%, softer global energy prices, and only modest depreciatory pressures on the Ghana cedi.
Although the cedi is projected to weaken by about 8.0% against the US dollar in 2026, Fitch Solutions noted that this would remain below the currency’s long-term average depreciation of 10.2% between 2010 and 2025. Elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves are also expected to help limit excessive exchange rate pressures in the coming quarters.
While inflation is expected to edge slightly higher in the second half of 2026 due to demand-side pressures, Fitch Solutions believes it will remain moderate by recent standards, limiting strain on household finances.
In addition, the government’s commitment, as outlined in the 2026 Budget, to raise public sector wages by 9.0% is expected to further support household purchasing power.
Against this backdrop, Fitch Solutions forecasts private consumption growth to remain strong at 6.5% in 2026, contributing an estimated 5.3 percentage points to headline real GDP growth.
