- Fixed-Income Market Records GH¢2.10bn Turnover but Concentration Deepens
Trading on the Ghana Fixed Income Market accelerated sharply on October 20, with total turnover rising to GH¢2.10bn as investors concentrated activity in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds and Treasury bills.
The session’s turnover increased by 123.8 per cent from GH¢938.69m on October 16, the previous trading day covered by the comparison. The number of trades also climbed from 467 to 1,993, representing an increase of 326.8 per cent.
The expansion was substantial, but its composition is more revealing than the headline. DDEP bonds and Treasury bills jointly accounted for about 99.2 per cent of total market turnover, leaving corporate bonds, commercial paper and sell-buyback transactions with only a marginal share.
DDEP bonds remained the largest segment, generating GH¢1.16bn across 39 trades. That represented 55 per cent of total turnover and an 84.1 per cent increase from the GH¢627.76m recorded across 40 trades on October 16.
The near doubling of DDEP turnover without an increase in transaction count suggests larger average ticket sizes rather than a broad expansion in the number of transactions. Average DDEP trade size rose from approximately GH¢15.69m to GH¢29.63m.
Activity was concentrated across six restructured government securities maturing between 2027 and 2032. The February 2032 bond carrying a 9.10 per cent coupon recorded the largest volume, with GH¢509.27m changing hands through 12 trades.
That instrument alone represented 44.1 per cent of DDEP turnover and 24.2 per cent of the entire market. Its closing yield increased to 14.58 per cent from 14.46 per cent on October 16, while its closing price declined from 80.4780 to 80.1534.
The price decline and yield increase indicate slightly weaker valuation for the security despite heavier trading. Higher activity therefore should not automatically be interpreted as stronger demand at improving prices. It may also reflect portfolio repositioning, liquidity needs or investors requiring additional yield to hold longer-dated exposure.
The February 2030 DDEP bond followed with GH¢290m, although that volume was executed in only two trades. The February 2029 security recorded GH¢150.79m across 14 trades, while the February 2027 bond attracted GH¢118m through five transactions.
Indicative volume-weighted closing yields across the actively traded DDEP securities eased to about 13.99 per cent from 14.21 per cent on October 16. The movement suggests some improvement in aggregate pricing, although individual bonds moved differently and the largest 2032 line closed at a higher yield.
Treasury-bill turnover produced the session’s most dramatic change. Activity increased by 207.2 per cent to GH¢928.14m from GH¢302.17m. The number of bill trades expanded from 412 to 1,933, making bills responsible for 97 per cent of all transactions recorded across the market.
The rise was overwhelmingly concentrated in 364-day instruments. They generated GH¢864.12m, equivalent to 93.1 per cent of Treasury-bill turnover and 41.1 per cent of total GFIM activity.
The January 18, 2027 bill was the most heavily traded Treasury security, recording GH¢239.30m across 1,748 transactions. It closed at a yield of 4.6379 per cent and a price of 98.8663.
The unusually large transaction count indicates participation through many smaller tickets, contrasting sharply with the concentration of DDEP activity in large institutional-sized trades. This gives the session two distinct liquidity stories: high-frequency activity in bills and large-value positioning in restructured bonds.
Other heavily traded 364-day bills included the October 18, 2027 maturity with GH¢211.89mn, the August 9, 2027 bill with GH¢211.64m and the July 12, 2027 security with GH¢92.23mn.
By comparison, 91-day bill turnover reached GH¢51.35m, while 182-day bills accounted for GH¢12.67m. Investors therefore displayed a strong preference for the one-year area rather than the shortest instruments.
The pattern may reflect a search for relatively predictable returns over a longer holding period, expectations about future interest rates or institutional efforts to lock in yields. However, the wide variation in prices and yields across individual maturities means the aggregate should be interpreted cautiously.
An indicative volume-weighted closing yield for traded bills rose to about 7.63 per cent from 6.97 per cent on October 16. The increase was influenced by the concentration of turnover across one-year instruments, which generally offered higher yields than shorter bills.
Sell-buyback activity also rose, although from a small base. Turnover increased by 290.5 per cent to GH¢15.39m from GH¢3.94m, while transactions climbed from seven to 15.
The February 2030 DDEP bond dominated that segment with GH¢11.19m across three trades, closing at a yield of 12.72 per cent and a weighted price of 89.6063.
Corporate bond activity weakened. Turnover fell by 57.4 per cent to GH¢1.90m across five trades, from GH¢4.47m across six trades previously. The August 2027 Ghana Cocoa Board bond accounted for GH¢1.80m of the total and closed at 101.4306, down from 102.1426 in the previous session.
A second Cocoa Board bond maturing in August 2028 recorded GH¢100,000 in one transaction. The limited activity reinforces the persistent depth gap between Ghana’s government and corporate fixed-income markets.
Commercial-paper turnover also declined, falling 17.3 per cent to GH¢124,077. The sole trade involved Cocoa Capital’s June 2027 paper, which closed at 100.2909. No trades were recorded in new government bonds, old government bonds or green and sustainable securities.
The October 20 session consequently delivered stronger liquidity without broader diversification. Turnover and transactions expanded, but activity remained dependent on restructured sovereign bonds and Treasury bills.
For issuers and policymakers, it highlights the unfinished task of developing active corporate, commercial-paper and sustainable-debt markets.
The headline is encouraging: GH¢2.10bn changed hands in one session. The underlying message is more demanding. A deeper fixed-income market requires not merely more trading, but liquidity distributed across more issuers, maturities and financing purposes.
