- GFIM Turnover Falls 32% As Investors Rotate from Treasury Bills into DDEP Bonds
Trading on the Ghana Fixed Income Market declined sharply on October 13, but the headline fall in turnover concealed an important change in investor positioning: restructured government bonds overtook Treasury bills as the largest source of secondary-market activity.
Total turnover fell to GH¢1.09 billion from GH¢1.61 billion in the previous session, representing a decline of GH¢516.16 million, or 32.1 percent.
The number of transactions dropped even more steeply, falling from 2,663 trades on October 12 to 343 trades. That translates into an 87.1 percent contraction and indicates that the previous session’s elevated activity was driven partly by a large number of smaller Treasury bill transactions.
The October 13 market was narrower, with fewer trades carrying larger average values.
The average value per transaction increased from about GH¢604,575 on October 12 to approximately GH¢3.19 million on October 13. This suggests that institutional-sized transactions became more influential even as aggregate market activity declined.
The stronger concentration in DDEP bonds was the most significant feature of the session. Turnover in securities issued under Ghana’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme rose by 4.9 percent to GH¢603.92 million from GH¢575.70 million.
By contrast, Treasury bill turnover fell by 52.9 percent to GH¢484.38 million from GH¢1.03 billion.
DDEP bonds consequently accounted for 55.2 percent of total GFIM turnover, while Treasury bills contributed 44.3 percent. The remaining market segments together represented less than one percent of activity.
The movement did not signal a broad retreat from short-dated government securities. Instead, it showed that the previous session’s exceptional Treasury bill turnover was not sustained, while a small number of large DDEP trades continued to provide liquidity in the bond market.
The contrast between total market turnover and DDEP activity is notable.
Although overall trading declined by nearly one-third, DDEP bond turnover increased by GH¢28.22 million.
This means the market’s contraction came almost entirely from the Treasury bill segment, where turnover fell by GH¢544.04 million.
The October 12 session had generated more than GH¢1 billion in Treasury bill trades across 2,609 transactions. On October 13, bill activity fell below GH¢500 million and the number of trades dropped to 315.
Treasury bills still produced more than 90 percent of all recorded transactions, demonstrating their continuing importance to day-to-day liquidity. But the value distribution shifted decisively towards bonds.
The distinction between transaction numbers and turnover is essential. Treasury bills remained the most frequently traded instruments, reflecting demand for short-duration government paper. DDEP bonds, however, attracted the larger block transactions.
That pattern is consistent with a market in which institutional investors are selectively adjusting medium- and long-term government debt positions while Treasury bill holders conduct a larger number of smaller liquidity-management trades.
The increase in DDEP turnover was highly concentrated.
The February 2030 DDEP bond, carrying an 8.80 percent coupon, recorded turnover of GH¢254.27 million across six transactions. It represented 42.1 percent of all DDEP bond trading and 23.2 percent of total GFIM turnover.
The February 2031 bond, with an 8.95 percent coupon, followed with GH¢160 million traded in only two transactions.
The February 2029 security, carrying an 8.65 percent coupon, recorded GH¢140.53 million across eight trades.
Together, the three securities generated GH¢554.80 million, equivalent to 91.9 percent of DDEP bond turnover.
This degree of concentration indicates that the increase in bond activity was not a general rise in liquidity across the restructured yield curve. Investors focused on a narrow maturity range between 2029 and 2031.
The pattern may reflect portfolio rebalancing around the middle section of the curve, where investors can obtain higher yields than those available on Treasury bills without accepting the duration exposure associated with the longest DDEP securities.
It may also reflect block transfers between institutional investors rather than a broad expansion in secondary-market participation.
The February 2032 DDEP bond, which had led the previous session with GH¢307.27 million in turnover, traded only GH¢48.62 million on October 13.
That 84.2 percent decline illustrates how quickly liquidity can rotate between individual securities in Ghana’s bond market.
On October 12, the February 2032 bond represented more than half of all DDEP trading. A day later, the February 2030 instrument had taken the lead.
This changing concentration makes it difficult to interpret one day’s turnover as evidence of permanent liquidity at a particular maturity.
Yield movements across the most actively traded DDEP bonds were mixed, suggesting that the session was driven by security-specific transactions rather than a uniform change in market expectations.
The February 2030 bond closed at a yield of 14.32 percent, 12 basis points above its opening level of 14.20 percent. Its closing price fell to GH¢85.68, consistent with the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields.
The February 2031 bond closed at 14.51 percent, rising by 23 basis points from 14.28 percent.
The February 2029 bond increased more moderately, ending at 13.90 percent from an opening yield of 13.86 percent.
These movements point to modest selling pressure or demands for higher returns across the three most active securities.
The February 2032 bond moved in the opposite direction. Its closing yield declined by 28 basis points to 14.23 percent from 14.51 percent, lifting its price to GH¢81.21.
This divergence shows that investors were not simply moving away from or into all DDEP bonds. They were distinguishing between maturities and prices.
The resulting curve remains uneven. The 2029 bond closed at 13.90 percent, the 2030 bond at 14.32 percent, the 2031 bond at 14.51 percent and the 2032 bond at 14.23 percent.
Such differences may partly reflect liquidity conditions, coupon structures and individual trade sizes rather than a smooth assessment of sovereign risk.
The relatively large trades executed in only a few transactions can move reported closing yields without necessarily indicating that the entire market has repriced.
Treasury bill turnover declined to GH¢484.38 million from GH¢1.03 billion, but activity remained concentrated in longer-dated bills.
The July 26, 2027 bill was the most actively traded Treasury security, recording turnover of GH¢178.42 million across 15 transactions. It accounted for 36.8 percent of all Treasury bill turnover.
The instrument closed at a yield of approximately 8.77 percent, marginally below the 8.78 percent recorded in the previous session.
The August 23, 2027 bill followed with GH¢56.38 million in turnover and a closing yield of about 9.09 percent.
The September 6, 2027 bill traded GH¢55.08 million at approximately 9.26 percent, while the August 30, 2027 bill recorded GH¢44.07 million at about 9.17 percent.
The concentration of activity in bills maturing during the second half of 2027 suggests that investors continue to value short-duration instruments but are willing to move beyond the nearest maturities to secure somewhat higher yields.
The August 2, 2027 bill, which had been the largest bill trade on October 12 with GH¢150.23 million, recorded GH¢28.87 million on October 13. Its closing yield eased slightly from 8.86 percent to 8.85 percent.
The small yield movements across comparable bills indicate relative stability in secondary-market pricing despite the sharp fall in turnover.
This is significant because falling turnover does not necessarily imply weakening demand. It can also reflect reduced availability of instruments, fewer portfolio adjustments or the absence of unusually large transactions.
Trading in new Government of Ghana bonds almost disappeared.
Turnover fell by 99.1 percent to GH¢29,281 from GH¢3.23 million in the previous session.
Only the March 2033 bond traded, recording two transactions. Its yield declined from 12.52 percent to 12 percent, while the closing price rose to GH¢102.20.
The 52-basis-point yield movement appears substantial, but the extremely small turnover means it should be interpreted cautiously.
A price established through GH¢29,281 in transactions may not provide the same depth of market information as a yield supported by several hundred million cedis in turnover.
The segment’s limited liquidity remains a concern for price discovery. New bonds may carry lower quoted yields than comparable restructured securities, but investors cannot assume that large positions can be bought or sold at those prices.
Corporate bond activity increased to GH¢3.09 million from GH¢688,292, representing a rise of 349.4 percent.
Despite the strong percentage increase, corporate securities accounted for only 0.28 percent of total market turnover.
Trading was entirely concentrated in two Ghana Cocoa Board bonds.
The August 2028 COCOBOD bond recorded GH¢2.50 million across three transactions, representing nearly 81 percent of corporate bond turnover. Its closing price was GH¢103.29.
The August 2027 COCOBOD bond traded GH¢588,900 in two transactions and closed at GH¢102.19.
The increase provides some evidence of investor interest in COCOBOD paper, but the absence of trades in other corporate securities highlights the continuing shallowness of Ghana’s non-sovereign fixed-income market.
Commercial paper and green or sustainable bonds recorded no activity.
This means Ghana’s fixed-income market remains overwhelmingly dependent on government-related securities, limiting the range of investible instruments available to pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors.
Sell-buyback turnover increased by 23.8 percent to GH¢2.40 million from GH¢1.94 million.
Almost the entire amount came from a single GH¢2.35 million transaction in the February 2029 DDEP bond. The trade represented 98.2 percent of repo activity.
The February 2027 DDEP bond accounted for the remaining GH¢43,200.
The increase therefore did not reflect a broad deepening of secured financing activity. It resulted from one dominant transaction.
A more active repo market would improve liquidity by allowing institutions to raise short-term cash against bond holdings rather than selling them outright. The present figures, however, show that this part of the market remains limited.
The October 13 session shows that Ghana’s secondary fixed-income market is moving through two distinct liquidity channels.
Treasury bills continue to dominate transaction numbers and provide the market’s most frequently traded securities. DDEP bonds increasingly account for large institutional transfers and can overtake bills in turnover when a few major transactions are executed.
In the near term, investors are likely to remain selective.
Short-dated securities should continue to benefit from demand for liquidity and reduced duration risk. Medium-dated DDEP bonds may attract investors seeking yields near 14 percent, but activity is likely to remain concentrated in a limited number of maturities.
The yield movements across the 2029–2032 DDEP securities suggest that the market has not established a uniform direction. Investors appear to be assessing individual prices, maturity risks and liquidity rather than making a single call on the government bond curve.
The main weakness remains breadth. More than 91 percent of DDEP trading came from three instruments, 81 percent of corporate bond turnover came from one security and 98 percent of repo activity came from one transaction.
The market therefore delivered more than GH¢1 billion in turnover, but liquidity was considerably thinner than the headline number suggests.
For Ghana’s fixed-income market to deepen, activity must spread beyond Treasury bills and a handful of DDEP securities into new government bonds, corporate debt, commercial paper and secured financing.
Until that happens, daily turnover will remain vulnerable to large swings whenever a few institutional block trades enter or leave the market.
