- Ghana Enters Post-IMF Era With Stronger Buffers and Rising Risks
Ghana entered the final quarter of 2026 with stronger growth, lower inflation and wider fiscal buffers than its recent crisis years, but its economic recovery is approaching a more difficult test: maintaining stability after International Monetary Fund financing has ended while oil prices, currency pressure and deferred government spending converge.
SIC Brokerage’s third-quarter macroeconomic review describes the economy as having “held its ground” rather than gained new ground. Real gross domestic product expanded 6 percent in the second quarter, inflation ended September at 5.2 percent and the January-to-July primary surplus reached 1.4 percent of GDP. Ghana Macro Review Q3 2026.pdf
Those figures are encouraging. They also conceal an emerging tension. Fiscal performance has been supported mainly by expenditure running below plan, growth is increasingly concentrated in information and communications technology and oil, and the cedi has surrendered part of its dramatic 2025 appreciation.
Ghana formally completed its US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme in July after the IMF released a final tranche of about US$371 million. The country has moved to a 36-month, non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument, which preserves twice-yearly reviews and 26 reform targets but provides no fresh programme money.
That makes the remainder of 2026 an institutional test. Fiscal discipline must now be demonstrated without each successful review being reinforced by an IMF disbursement. The numbers have so far remained comfortably within programme limits: the overall deficit stood at 0.2 percent of GDP by July against a 1.9 percent target.
Yet the quality of the fiscal outperformance matters. During the second quarter, revenue matched the GH¢65.9 billion target, but expenditure was GH¢63.3 billion against GH¢74.1 billion programmed. Capital expenditure reached 79 percent of its quarterly target, while arrears clearance achieved only 39 percent of plan.
Revenue composition provides another warning. Company taxes exceeded their quarterly target by 24 percent, supported by gold-sector profitability, but value-added tax fell 11 percent short, excise collections missed by 61 percent and oil revenue was 23 percent below plan.
The government still appears likely to meet its headline targets. With a primary surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP already recorded by July, only about 0.1 percent more is required to achieve the full-year commitment-basis target of 1.5 percent. The cash deficit ceiling of 4 percent of GDP also appears secure.
The more serious fiscal challenge lies beyond December. GH¢58 billion of domestic debt exchange bonds mature in 2027 and another GH¢53 billion in 2028. The Sinking Fund held GH¢15.6 billion by late July, against an end-year target of GH¢30 billion, providing a buffer but not eliminating refinancing risk.
Public debt had also risen to 45.9 percent of GDP by July from 44.7 percent at the end of 2025. Part of the increase reflects the weaker cedi raising the domestic value of external obligations. Ghana has moved to moderate risk of debt distress, but the direction of debt must still be watched.
Inflation offers the clearest evidence of progress. September’s 5.2 percent rate was well below the 9.4 percent recorded a year earlier and remained beneath the Bank of Ghana’s 6-to-10-percent target band. Imported inflation stayed near 2 percent despite depreciation, while underlying price pressure remained contained.
However, the direction shifted during the quarter. Inflation fell to 4.6 percent in July before rising to 5 percent in August and 5.2 percent in September. Services inflation remained between 8.3 and 8.6 percent, with housing, utilities, rent, transport fares and other locally generated costs driving the increase.
The report characterises inflation as “a home-grown, services story”. That distinction matters because domestic service prices are often slower to reverse than imported goods prices. Electricity and water tariff increases, expensive crude oil and higher transport costs can become embedded in rents, wages and operating expenses.
SIC Brokerage expects inflation to finish 2026 between 5.5 and 7.5 percent, most likely around 6 percent. The balance of risks is upward, particularly if Brent crude remains above US$100 a barrel and the cedi weakens beyond GH¢12 to the dollar.
That outlook explains why the Bank of Ghana held its policy rate at 14 percent for three consecutive meetings after cutting it aggressively from 27 percent in January 2025. With inflation at 5.2 percent, the real policy rate is about 8.8 percent, offering protection against renewed inflation and currency weakness.
The cedi remains the recovery’s most visible vulnerability. After appreciating approximately 40.7 percent in 2025, it had depreciated about 9.5 percent during 2026 by late September, trading near GH¢11.55 to the dollar. Gross reserves declined from US$12.9 billion at the end of June to US$12.05 billion by September 22.
The pressure is notable because Ghana’s external accounts remain strong. The trade surplus reached US$8.85 billion during the first eight months, while first-half gold exports increased 49 percent to US$12.5 billion. Currency weakness has instead reflected corporate and offshore dollar demand, import payments, coupon repatriation and reduced central-bank intervention.
Growth, meanwhile, remains impressive but increasingly narrow. ICT expanded 30.9 percent and accounted for about 41.5 percent of second-quarter growth, while oil and gas rebounded 21.4 percent. Agriculture grew only 3.9 percent, mining slowed to 2.6 percent and fishing contracted 24.7 percent.
Ghana can still achieve full-year growth of between 6 and 6.3 percent, comfortably above the government’s 4.8 percent target. But the composition matters. An economy powered disproportionately by digital services, oil production and public investment may expand without generating enough broad-based income or employment.
The third-quarter message is therefore neither celebration nor alarm. Ghana has created genuine macroeconomic space, but the easier phase of recovery is ending. The decisive question is whether fiscal discipline can survive delayed spending, debt maturities and political demands while growth spreads beyond a few leading sectors.
Stability has been restored. The next test is whether Ghana can use it before external shocks, domestic costs and refinancing needs begin consuming the room it has created.
