- Ghana Has Stabilised but Not Yet Transformed Its Economy — PwC
Ghana’s economic recovery has become increasingly credible, but the country has not yet converted macroeconomic stability into broad-based structural transformation, according to PwC.
In its assessment of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, the accounting and advisory firm said the government had made a persuasive case that Ghana had emerged from the most acute phase of its recent economic crisis.
However, it cautioned that stronger fiscal balances, declining debt risks and improved foreign-exchange reserves should not be interpreted as evidence that the economy’s underlying growth model had been fundamentally transformed.
“The government’s narrative is more persuasive on stabilisation than on transformation,” PwC said.
The assessment draws a distinction between restoring macroeconomic order and building a more productive, diversified and resilient economy.
Ghana has made progress in reducing fiscal pressure, improving debt dynamics and rebuilding external buffers. But long-standing weaknesses in electricity, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing and banking continue to limit productivity and private-sector growth.
PwC said these structural constraints would require reforms sustained over several years and across successive administrations.
Its analysis nevertheless described the government’s fiscal consolidation programme as credible and measurable.
Ghana recorded a commitment-basis primary surplus of 0.90% of gross domestic product during the first half of 2026, while the cash primary surplus stood at 0.60% of GDP.
Both outcomes exceeded budget expectations, indicating that revenue and expenditure management were producing stronger-than-projected fiscal results.
A primary surplus means government revenue exceeded expenditure before interest payments, providing an important measure of whether the state can stabilise its debt position without relying excessively on new borrowing.
Expenditure restraint also generated substantial savings.
Interest payments were GH¢6.90 billion below budget, including GH¢4.20 billion in domestic interest savings.
The lower cost reduced pressure on public finances and helped limit the government’s financing needs.
PwC said Ghana’s debt trajectory had also improved materially.
Debt restructuring, exchange-rate movements and nominal GDP growth had all contributed to the reduction in debt ratios, but the overall direction had shifted away from the previously unsustainable path.
The firm also highlighted progress in external debt restructuring, including the completion of the Saderea Notes exchange and agreements with bilateral and commercial creditors.
These measures have reduced near-term sovereign financing risks and improved Ghana’s standing with investors.
The external position has strengthened alongside the fiscal recovery.
International reserves reached the equivalent of five months of import cover in June 2026, comfortably above the conventional three-month adequacy threshold.
Stronger reserves provide the economy with greater protection against external shocks, including commodity-price volatility, capital outflows and pressure on the cedi.
They also improve the Bank of Ghana’s ability to respond to foreign-exchange market disruptions.
Despite these gains, PwC said stability should be treated as a platform for deeper reforms rather than the final objective of economic policy.
The power sector remains a significant constraint because unreliable or expensive electricity raises production costs and weakens the competitiveness of businesses.
Infrastructure deficiencies continue to limit logistics, trade and industrial development, while agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to weather shocks, weak irrigation and limited processing capacity.
Manufacturing also requires stronger investment, technology and access to affordable finance if Ghana is to reduce import dependence and create more productive employment.
The banking industry presents another area requiring sustained attention.
Although financial stability has improved, high lending costs, asset-quality concerns and limited access to credit continue to restrict private-sector expansion.
PwC’s assessment suggests that the government’s next challenge is to convert fiscal space into reforms and investments capable of lifting productivity.
That will require disciplined capital allocation, stronger public institutions and policies that attract private investment into energy, industry, infrastructure and agriculture.
The firm’s conclusion is broadly positive but cautious.
Ghana has stabilised the economy, improved fiscal credibility and reduced immediate sovereign financing risks.
But economic transformation will require more than favourable headline indicators.
The recovery will become durable only if fiscal discipline is matched by reforms that strengthen productive sectors, improve competitiveness and expand the economy’s long-term growth capacity.
