Ghana medical devices market revised upwards amid improving economic backdrop
Fitch Solutions has revised upwards its forecast CAGR for Ghana’s medical devices market in US dollar and local currency terms, supported by tailwinds from rising health budget allocations and an improving economic backdrop.
In US dollar terms, it now forecasts the market to grow by a 2022-2027 CAGR of 17.3%, from 10.5% previously, taking the value of the market to $161.3mn by 2027.
In local currency terms, the medical devices market will expand by a five-year CAGR of 24.4% previously at 12.5%, taking the value of the market to GHS1. 8bn.
The relatively strong performance of the cedi-denominated sales (24.4% growth) versus US dollar-denominated sales (17.3%) is due to the current weakness of the cedi against the US dollar.
Strong Growth In Medical Devices Sales To 2027
Ghana – Medical Devices Total Sales, USDmn And % y-o-y
Ghana’s medical device market will benefit from increasing government spending on health and economic recovery over 2024 notes Fitch Solutions.
“We have previously highlighted that Ghana’s Health Budget increased from GHS 10.9bn to GHS15.2bn in 2023, aligning with a 51.5% increase in Ghana’s 2023 state budget, one of the most expansionary budgets in Ghana to date. In 2024, the health budget is estimated at GHS16.5bn. We believe ongoing health infrastructure projects and rollout of the National Health Insurance Scheme will continue to support increased budgetary spending on health over the coming decades as well as spending on pharmaceuticals and medical devices,” stated Fitch Solutions.
“We further highlight recovery in Ghana’s real GDP in 2024 after sharp declines in 2022 and 2023 will also support private spending on medical devices and medical devices imports in the country over our forecast period. We forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.7% in 2024 from an estimated 3.0% in 2023. However, GDP will remain below the five-year pre-pandemic average of 5.3% as a result of strong price pressures and fiscal consolidation,” the research agency added.
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022e | 2023f | 2024f |
| Real GDP growth, % y-o-y | 5.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.7 |
| Nominal GDP, USDbn | 79.5 | 73.8 | 76 | 97.1 |
| Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop | 12.6 | 54.1 | 24.7 | 13.1 |
| Exchange rate GHS per USD, eop | 6.01 | 8.58 | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| Budget balance, % of GDP | -9.2 | -10.7 | -4 | -5.6 |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | -3.2 | -2.1 | 1.3 | -0.2 |
According to Fitch Solutions, all product categories will post high to double-digit growth in US dollar terms, led by consumables and dental products. Consumables accounted for more than a quarter of the total medical devices market in Ghana, and the category is expected to record the fastest CAGR growth of 21.3% in US dollar terms over our five-year forecast period to 2027.
Growth in consumables over the near-to-medium-term, Fitch Solutions asserts, will continue to be supported by improving access to healthcare in Ghana as the country continues to implement its universal health coverage goals.
While accounting for the smallest portion of the medical devices market, dental products will record a 2022-2027 CAGR of 21.1% in US dollar terms. Dental services such as tooth replacement and filling, root canal therapy, dental X-ray and scaling are provided free of charge in the public health sector in Ghana, however access remains limited in rural areas due to a shortage of equipment and trained dentists.
Demand for diagnostic products is also expected to remain strong as the market copes with prevention and treatment with the double burden of chronic and communicable diseases
Solid Growth In All Product Categories
Ghana – Previous And Revised CAGR 2022-2027 Forecasts In USD Terms
Ghana heavily relies on medical devices imports, with domestic manufacturing activities expected to remain minimal over the near to medium term. In 2022, medical device imports accounted for nearly 98% of the market. Over 2018 – 2022, Mainland China was the largest supplier, accounting for 40 – 50% of Ghana’s total medical device market. Other markets such as Germany, the US, UK and India account for less than 10% each. Mainland China and Ghana are keen to strengthen bilateral economic and political ties, which could support future trade partnerships including medical devices trade. We expect slowly appreciating Ghana cedi will support medical device imports over the near-to-medium term. Our Country Risk team expects the Ghanaian cedi will strengthen by almost 3.0% from the August 31 spot of GHS11.4/USD to GHS11.1/USD by end-2023. The appreciation will be underpinned by progress on the restructuring of Ghana’s external debt, stronger capital inflows and a pivot to monetary easing in developed markets. In terms of medical device exports, domestic manufacturing remains negligible and low-end consumables, therefore limiting exports. Moreover, attractiveness of the country to multinational medical devices makers remain low, with company activity only constrained to commercial activity and environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives.
