Ghana to See Limited Impact from US Tariffs Amid Wider Sub-Saharan Exposure, Says Fitch Solutions
Ghana is expected to be among the least affected economies in Sub-Saharan Africa by the sweeping reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States under President Donald Trump’s second administration, according to research from Fitch Solutions.
In a regional ranking published by the UK-based firm, Ghana is placed 42nd in terms of vulnerability to the new US tariff regime, suggesting a comparatively limited exposure relative to peers. The West African nation faces an effective reciprocal tariff rate of 10%, with cocoa, textiles, and selected agricultural exports cited as the most impacted sectors.
Fitch’s “Effective US Reciprocal Tariff Rates” index incorporates not only headline duties but also considers exemptions and sector-specific levies. The index highlights that the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sao Tome and Principe, Niger and Eritrea will face the greatest tariff pressures in the Sub-Saharan region.
Equatorial Guinea, by contrast, is forecast to be the least affected among the 48 Sub-Saharan economies assessed.
The broader Sub-Saharan African region, however, may experience renewed macroeconomic pressure, particularly among oil-exporting countries, amid a sharp decline in crude prices. Brent crude has fallen nearly 15% since April 2, with analysts warning of further downside risks tied to weakening global demand and OPEC+’s decision to increase supply by restoring previously cut volumes.
“We believe that SSA’s oil-exporting markets will come under significant pressure should global oil prices fail to recover,” Fitch said in a note. “Among the larger markets, Angola and Nigeria are particularly vulnerable given their structural dependence on oil as a source of both government revenue and foreign exchange.”
Angola and Nigeria based their 2025 national budgets on oil price benchmarks of US$70 and US$75 per barrel respectively — figures that are now considered overly optimistic in light of Brent crude’s recent trajectory.
The latest tariff escalation by the United States represents one of the most aggressive protectionist shifts in decades. Since the start of 2025, the average US tariff rate has risen from 2.5% to approximately 27% — the highest level recorded in over a century. The Trump administration has justified the tariffs as a means to counter what it sees as unfair trade practices and to rebalance trade flows in favour of American producers.
While Ghana appears shielded from the worst effects, analysts warn that targeted sectors such as cocoa and textiles — both of which form a meaningful part of Ghana’s export base — may still face disruptions, especially if key US buyers diversify sourcing to avoid elevated costs.
