- Ghana’s Economic Recovery Yet to Fully Reach Real Sector Despite Strong Macro Turnaround
Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery is gaining traction, but the benefits are yet to fully transmit into the real economy, raising fresh questions about whether the country’s rebound is deep enough to support broad-based business expansion, job creation and income growth.
Speaking at a JoyBusiness roundtable on the theme, “Mahama at 16 Months: Do Economic Narratives Match Real-Sector Outcomes?”, Yaw Appiah Lartey, Partner at Deloitte Africa, presented data showing a clear improvement in headline macroeconomic conditions but a more uneven picture across key productive sectors.
According to his presentation, Ghana’s inflation declined sharply from 23.8 per cent in 2024 to 5.4 per cent in 2025, while gross domestic product growth strengthened to 6.0 per cent, from 5.7 per cent over the same period. Public debt-to-gross domestic product also improved significantly, falling from 61.8 per cent to 45.3 per cent, supported by fiscal consolidation efforts.
External buffers also improved. Gross international reserves rose to US$13.8 billion, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover, while the cedi stabilised around GH¢10.45 to GH¢10.87 against the US dollar. The policy rate eased to 18.0 per cent, from 27.0 per cent in 2024, signalling a shift toward monetary loosening.
The data points to a striking turnaround from the crisis conditions that previously defined Ghana’s economy. The government has brought inflation under control, stabilised the exchange rate, strengthened reserves, and improved debt metrics.
Yet Mr Lartey’s presentation suggested that the headline gains have not yet prompted a sufficiently strong real-sector response.
Quarterly gross domestic product data showed growth moderating unevenly across 2024 and 2025, with output slowing to 4.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 before recovering to 6.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, and easing again thereafter. The trend points to fragile momentum rather than a broad-based expansion.
More critically, the sectoral breakdown revealed that a narrow group of industries continues to concentrate growth. Information and communication, education, and health services emerged as key drivers in 2025, with growth rates exceeding 20 per cent in some quarters.
By contrast, traditional productive sectors such as manufacturing, construction and electricity continue to record declining shares of gross domestic product over the long term, raising concerns about the structure of the recovery and its capacity to generate jobs at scale.
Several sectors remain under strain. Oil and gas recorded contractions of up to 20 per cent in some quarters, while mining, water and sewerage, and forestry also posted negative growth rates. These weaknesses point to persistent vulnerabilities in sectors that should ordinarily anchor output, exports, fiscal receipts and employment.
The labour market data reinforce the concern. Although unemployment declined from 14.4 per cent in early 2024 to 12.4 per cent by mid-2025, it has since edged up to about 13.0 per cent, suggesting that job creation remains inconsistent despite the stronger macroeconomic backdrop.
The implication is that Ghana’s recovery remains more stabilisation-led than transformation-driven.
Macroeconomic discipline has restored a measure of confidence and created room for lower inflation, a stronger reserve position and reduced borrowing costs. But the real economy continues to face structural constraints, including weak industrial expansion, limited diversification, uneven productivity growth and fragile employment creation.
That divergence is becoming the central policy question in Ghana’s recovery story. The government can point to improved inflation, exchange rate stability, lower debt ratios and monetary easing as evidence that the economy has turned a corner. But businesses and households will ultimately judge the recovery by access to credit, output expansion, job creation, wages and purchasing power.
For the private sector, the next phase of recovery will depend on whether stabilisation can reduce operating uncertainty and crowd in new investments. For households, the impact will hinge on whether lower inflation and exchange rate stability lead to stronger incomes and more secure employment.
Mr Lartey’s analysis suggests that Ghana has made meaningful progress in repairing the macroeconomic foundations of the economy. But the harder work now lies in converting those gains into a more diversified and productive growth model.
As Ghana moves beyond crisis repair, the policy focus must shift from stabilisation alone to structural reform. That means strengthening manufacturing, improving energy reliability, deepening export competitiveness, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, raising productivity and ensuring that growth is not confined to a few high-performing service sectors.
The recovery may now be visible in the macro numbers. But its durability will depend on whether it reaches the factory floor, the construction site, the farm gate, the trading corridor and the labour market.
