Ghana’s gold production is projected to increase by some 8.3 per cent by the end of 2024.
The projected positive growth by GlobalData – a leading data and analytics company – follows a 7.5 per cent dip in gold production due to disruptions occasioned by the coronavirus pandemic last year.
The projection however, falls below Fitch Solutions 9 per cent year-on-year growth forecast for the country’s gold production, with total production anticipated to reach 4.7 million ounces.
GlobalData, posits that Ghana’s total gold production for 2021 is forecasted to reach 3.6 million ounces further reaching 3.9 million ounces by 2024, attributing the increase in production to AngloGold’s Obuasi redevelopment project.
“AngloGold’s Obuasi redevelopment project will be a key boost to production, the first phase has already been completed, and the momentum of the second phase was maintained despite COVID-19 challenges. The project is expected to contribute up to 200,000 ounces of gold production capacity and is anticipated to begin in 2021,” noted GlobalData.
Gold remains a major contributor to Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product. In the first three quarters of 2019, mining and quarrying contributed Ghs 21.6 billion ($4.2 billion) to GDP.
Ghana’s total gold output for 2019 was approximately 5 million ounces, surpassing South Africa’s 4.2 million ounces, making the country the largest gold producer on the continent.
World outlook
Gold production in West Africa’s leading markets – Ghana, Burkina Faso and Mali – is expected to increase by 2.7% in 2021 to 8 million ounces and grow to 8.4 million ounces by 2024 – a 1.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
The majority of this growth is expected to originate from Ghana.
“A total of 12 projects are currently under development across Ghana, Burkina Faso and Mali, which are expected to be operational by 2024, representing more than 1,500,000 ounces of gold production capacity. These include the Bombore and Kiaka in Burkina Faso, Obuasi Phase 2 in Ghana and Kobada in Mali,” stated GlobalData.
The pandemic had a significant impact on African operations, mainly during the early part of the second quarter of 2020, when, at one point, over 25% of the region’s gold mines were on hold due to COVID-19 lockdowns, reports GlobalData.
Production in Mali fell by 5.6% in 2020, owing to the COVID-19 operational disruptions across several mines, including the closure of the Morila and Sadiola mines. The country initially continued business activities, despite the outbreak.
However, in December 2020, the government imposed a lockdown for 10 days on the grounds of new COVID-19 cases.
In contrast, production in Burkina Faso is estimated to have grown by 2.1% in 2020 to 1, 941, 800 ounces. The growth was mainly supported by higher output from the Mana Gold, Karma and Hounde mines with 36.3%, 3.1% and 6.3% growth, respectively.
Furthermore, the commencement of the Wahgnion Gold project in 2019 and the Sanbrado Gold project in 2020 contributed towards higher output in 2020. In Burkina Faso, gold production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8%, supported by 460 000 oz of new gold production capacity.
Gold production is expected to increase globally by 5.5% in 2021 to 113.9 million ounces and grow to 124.1 million ounces by 2024 – a 2.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Canada, Indonesia, Peru, and the US will be the key contributors to this growth.
Combined production in these countries is expected to recover from an estimated 20.1 million ounces in 2021 to 25.3 million ounces in 2024.
